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Determinantes das taxas de juro dos depósitos a prazo dos particulares – o caso português
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Após um longo período de taxas de juro próximas de zero, a recente subida das taxas
reacendeu o debate sobre a competitividade dos depósitos a prazo em Portugal,
especialmente comparado com alternativas como os Certificados de Aforro.
Este estudo visa analisar os determinantes e a evolução das taxas de juro dos depósitos
a prazo dos particulares em Portugal, incluindo uma breve contextualização do setor
bancário português e uma comparação da evolução das taxas e respetiva divergência face
à zona euro. A investigação combina uma revisão da literatura, seguida de uma análise
descritiva das taxas de juro no contexto macroeconómico em que se inserem,
considerando fatores como a política monetária do BCE, o crescimento do PIB e a
concorrência. Adicionalmente, são analisados ainda fatores específicos dos bancos, como
a liquidez, a solvabilidade e a estrutura de passivos do setor. Por fim, o estudo é
complementado por uma análise econométrica que avalia o impacto destes fatores no
período de 2001 a 2023.
Com base na estimação do modelo, os resultados indicam que a taxa Euribor tem um
impacto positivo, sendo o principal fator explicativo das taxas de juro dos depósitos a
prazo dos particulares em Portugal e, que, a concentração bancária, a liquidez e uma
estrutura de passivos dependente de depósitos de clientes têm um impacto negativo. Já a
solvência e o crescimento económico não se revelaram estatisticamente significativos.
After a long period of near-zero interest rates, the recent rate hikes have reignited the debate on the competitiveness of term deposits in Portugal, particularly in comparison to alternatives such as Savings Certificates. This study aims to understand the determinants and evolution of interest rates on term deposits for individuals in Portugal, including a brief contextualization of the Portuguese banking sector and a comparison of the evolution of interest rates and their divergence from the Eurozone. The research combines a literature review followed by a descriptive analysis of interest rates within their macroeconomic context, considering factors such as ECB´s monetary policy, GDP growth, and competition. Additionally, bank-specific factors such as liquidity, solvency, and the sector's liability structure are also examined. Finally, the study is complemented by an econometric analysis that assesses the impact of these factors over the period from 2001 to 2023. Based on the model estimation, the results indicate that the Euribor rate has a positive impact, being the main explanatory factor for the interest rates on time deposits of individuals in Portugal. Additionally, bank concentration, liquidity, and a liability structure dependent on customer deposits have a negative impact. However, solvency and economic growth were not statistically significant.
After a long period of near-zero interest rates, the recent rate hikes have reignited the debate on the competitiveness of term deposits in Portugal, particularly in comparison to alternatives such as Savings Certificates. This study aims to understand the determinants and evolution of interest rates on term deposits for individuals in Portugal, including a brief contextualization of the Portuguese banking sector and a comparison of the evolution of interest rates and their divergence from the Eurozone. The research combines a literature review followed by a descriptive analysis of interest rates within their macroeconomic context, considering factors such as ECB´s monetary policy, GDP growth, and competition. Additionally, bank-specific factors such as liquidity, solvency, and the sector's liability structure are also examined. Finally, the study is complemented by an econometric analysis that assesses the impact of these factors over the period from 2001 to 2023. Based on the model estimation, the results indicate that the Euribor rate has a positive impact, being the main explanatory factor for the interest rates on time deposits of individuals in Portugal. Additionally, bank concentration, liquidity, and a liability structure dependent on customer deposits have a negative impact. However, solvency and economic growth were not statistically significant.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Taxas de juro Depósitos a prazo Portugal Setor bancário Interest rates Term Deposits Portugal Banking sector
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Almeida, Tomás Filipe Reis Páris (2025). “Determinantes das taxas de juro dos depósitos a prazo dos particulares – o caso português”. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão