Repository logo
 
Publication

Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS CoV 2 in metropolitan areas

2021Conference object Open access
Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Ana Isabel
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-28T08:39:19Z
dc.date.available2021-10-28T08:39:19Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractMobility restrictions have been implemented in many countries to curb the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. In Portugal, strict lockdown periods have been established since March 2020, including limitations on inter-municipal flows and the suspension of all non-essential travel. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas, Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA), the most densely populated areas in the country and with intense commuting flows. Based on an adapted SEIR (Suscetible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, we estimated the number of new daily infections during one year, according to different mobility scenarios: restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, public transport use, and a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. At the municipal level, the trends of new daily infections were further explored using time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping as a dissimilarity measure. Mobility restrictions are reflected in lower numbers of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between March and September 2020, the official number of new infections follows overall a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At the municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas. In LMA, Lisbon municipality absorbs most of the flows and has the highest number of new infections in all scenarios; in PMA, the highest number of infections is reached by various municipalities in different times depending on the scenario. The distinct characteristics of these areas should be considered in reopening strategies during the pandemic, as well as in further approaches to improve mobility in metropolitan areas.pt_PT
dc.description.versionN/Apt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/50042
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.relationhealTh RIsk and social vulnerability to Arboviral Diseases in mainland portugal
dc.subjectMobilitypt_PT
dc.subjectSARS CoV 2pt_PT
dc.subjectMetropolitan areaspt_PT
dc.subjectSEIR modelpt_PT
dc.subjectLockdownpt_PT
dc.titleSimulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS CoV 2 in metropolitan areaspt_PT
dc.typeconference object
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitlehealTh RIsk and social vulnerability to Arboviral Diseases in mainland portugal
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FGES-OUT%2F30210%2F2017/PT
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceVirtualpt_PT
oaire.citation.title17th International Conference on Urban Healthpt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNameRocha
person.givenNameSandra
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifier0000000069085031
person.identifier.ciencia-id8A16-4976-FD63
person.identifier.ciencia-idEC15-76DC-9B96
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6253-4353
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7228-6330
person.identifier.ridAAK-5051-2020
person.identifier.ridF-3185-2017
person.identifier.scopus-author-id17435272900
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56428061000
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typeconferenceObjectpt_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd30eb4c5-8ef1-426b-8e80-baa646b30f0e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication9c7dabc1-d6c6-4636-9293-6babe2ba64c9
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery9c7dabc1-d6c6-4636-9293-6babe2ba64c9
relation.isProjectOfPublication53ac187b-cc72-4cb4-aa13-87634d1eb964
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery53ac187b-cc72-4cb4-aa13-87634d1eb964

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
ICUH2021_covid_mobility.pdf
Size:
1.11 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download

Collections

IGOT - Comunicações