| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Mobility restrictions have been implemented in many countries to curb the spread of
the SARS-Cov-2 virus. In Portugal, strict lockdown periods have been established
since March 2020, including limitations on inter-municipal flows and the suspension of
all non-essential travel.
We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amongst
the municipalities of two metropolitan areas, Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA), the most
densely populated areas in the country and with intense commuting flows. Based on
an adapted SEIR (Suscetible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, we estimated the
number of new daily infections during one year, according to different mobility
scenarios: restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, public transport use, and
a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. At the municipal
level, the trends of new daily infections were further explored using time-series
clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping as a dissimilarity measure.
Mobility restrictions are reflected in lower numbers of new daily infections when
compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between
March and September 2020, the official number of new infections follows overall a
similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At the
municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas. In LMA, Lisbon
municipality absorbs most of the flows and has the highest number of new infections in
all scenarios; in PMA, the highest number of infections is reached by various
municipalities in different times depending on the scenario.
The distinct characteristics of these areas should be considered in reopening
strategies during the pandemic, as well as in further approaches to improve mobility in
metropolitan areas.
Description
Keywords
Mobility SARS CoV 2 Metropolitan areas SEIR model Lockdown