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Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal

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dc.contributor.authorGoiana da Silva, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorSilva, David Cruz e
dc.contributor.authorAllen, Luke
dc.contributor.authorGregório, Maria João
dc.contributor.authorSevero, Milton
dc.contributor.authorNogueira, Paulo Jorge
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Alexandre Morais
dc.contributor.authorGraça, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorLopes, Carla
dc.contributor.authorMiraldo, Marisa
dc.contributor.authorBreda, João
dc.contributor.authorWickramasinghe, Kremlin
dc.contributor.authorDarzi, Ara
dc.contributor.authorAraújo, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorMikkelsen, Bente
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-16T14:37:06Z
dc.date.available2019-07-16T14:37:06Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description© Copyright World Health Organization (WHO). Some rights reserved.pt_PT
dc.description.abstractObjective: To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. Methods: The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015–2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990–2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. Findings: If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015–2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. Conclusion: The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThe WHO Regional Office for Europe and the Portuguese government funded this study.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBull World Health Organ 2019;97:450–459pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.2471/BLT.18.220566pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0042-9686
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/39135
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWorld Health Organizationpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.who.int/bulletin/en/pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.titleModelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugalpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage459pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue7pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage450pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleBulletin of the World Health Organizationpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume97pt_PT
person.familyNameCruz e Silva
person.familyNameNogueira
person.givenNameDavid
person.givenNamePaulo Jorge
person.identifier737421
person.identifier1013768
person.identifier.ciencia-id3215-C59C-A9A3
person.identifier.ciencia-id2410-2DCC-F213
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1978-9446
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8316-5035
person.identifier.ridP-1140-2018
person.identifier.ridAAR-5605-2020
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57204861907
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7005428250
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd21d900c-a91d-400b-a600-b81252109b51
relation.isAuthorOfPublication9d24d0e5-5fab-4fef-b962-b0333e28f9d1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery9d24d0e5-5fab-4fef-b962-b0333e28f9d1

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