A carregar...
Publicação
Defining priorities for wildfire mitigation actions at the local scale: insights from a novel risk analysis method applied in Portugal
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.11 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Introduction: In Portugal, the 2017 fire season was particularly extreme, leading
to an unprecedented large number of fatalities, injured people, destruction of
houses and infrastructures. These dramatic outcomes have contributed to raise
awareness regarding the importance of ensuring the safety of people and assets
from high intensity uncontrollable wildfires. It is crucial to identify the settlements
at higher risk and the most suitable mitigation actions that can maximize the
protection of people and assets.
Methods: We developed a simple methodology that combines exposure and
vulnerability to estimate wildfire risk at the local level. Exposure was estimated
using a fire spread simulation approach that was used to determine the
probability of (i) a wildfire generating firebrands that could affect a settlement
and (ii) a high intensity wildfire occurring adjacent to a settlement. Exposure was
estimated using two fuel scenarios created to represent the current year of 2023
(short-term scenario) and 2030, assuming that no fuel management nor large
fires occur in the meantime (medium-term worst-case scenario). Vulnerability
was determined by the (i) Index of Total Dependence (IDT), and (ii) evacuation
difficulty. Exposure and vulnerability metrics were normalized in percentiles,
distributed into quadrants and combined to provide six levels of wildfire risk. For
each vulnerability\exposure combination, we proposed a set of priority mitigation
actions. The methodology was applied to three areas in Portugal where the risk
estimates were analyzed and compared with the implementation rate of two risk
mitigation programs already in place.
Results: Results showed that 8.7% of the settlements had “very high” wildfire risk
and about 19.5% had “high” wildfire risk, potentially affecting 8,403 and 34,762
inhabitants, respectively. The spatial distribution of settlements at higher risk was
very heterogeneous across the study areas and the total fraction ranged between
14% in Coimbra to 36% in Barlavento Algarvio. The overall implementation of
mitigation programs in the study areas is very low, with only around 1% of the
settlements in “very high” risk having any of the mitigation programs implemented.
Conversely, our results also suggest that the implementation rate in settlements
classified in lower risk classes is disproportionately high.
Discussion: The application of this risk analysis methodology can be used to
assess the implementation status of mitigation actions, and contribute to tailor
the actions that maximize the protection of people and assets according to the
specific conditions found in each targeted area.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Communities Exposure Vulnerability Fire behavior Wildland-urban interface (WUI) Coping capacity
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Benali, A., Aparício, B. A., Gonçalves, A. & Oliveira, S. (2023). Defining priorities for wildfire mitigation actions at the local scale: insights from a novel risk analysis method applied in Portugal. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6,1270210. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1270210
Editora
Frontiers