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Análise das Dinâmicas de Uso e Ocupação do Solo na Região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo com Base no Sistema de Monitorização de Ocupação do Solo
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Resumo(s)
A análise das dinâmicas de uso e ocupação do solo na Região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo
é um dos principais objetivos da presente dissertação e é essencial para compreender as
transformações do território nas últimas décadas e os seus impactos na sustentabilidade
ambiental, no planeamento territorial e na competitividade agrícola. Para além de identificar as
mudanças ocorridas, este estudo procura avaliar o desempenho dos instrumentos de
planeamento em vigor face ao papel crucial que desempenham na regulação do uso do solo e
na influência sobre as dinâmicas existentes.
Os resultados evidenciam um aumento significativo dos territórios artificializados
sobretudo em detrimento de áreas agrícolas. Contudo, políticas de valorização e de inovação
agrícola promoveram uma recuperação parcial destas áreas no Oeste e na Lezíria do Tejo. Por
outro lado, o aumento das áreas florestais reflete os esforços sobre a conservação ambiental e
da biodiversidade, alinhados com instrumentos de planeamento como o PNPOT, PROF e
PROT.
A agricultura de regadio revelou-se essencial para o desenvolvimento e competitividade
agrícola da região, por manter os níveis de produtividade elevados, tendo sido analisada a sua
evolução através do Mapa Anual de Culturas Temporárias de Primavera/Verão, desenvolvido
no Google Earth Engine, que apresentou uma exatidão global de 97,6% com a COSc 2021 e
de 95,8% com os dados do IFAP.
Por último, foram desenvolvidos cenários futuros utilizando o classificador Random
Forest para avaliar a adequabilidade da agricultura de regadio face às alterações climáticas. O
modelo treinado apresenta uma exatidão global de 74,3 %.
Os resultados deste estudo destacam o potencial das ferramentas de monitorização e
predição na gestão e planeamento territorial e no apoio à tomada de decisões sobre a gestão
eficiente da água, conservação ambiental e integração das áreas urbanas e rurais, garantindo
que se alinham com os objetivos dos instrumentos de planeamento.
The analysis of land use and land cover dynamics in the Lisbon and Vale do Tejo Region is one of the main objectives of this dissertation and is essential for understanding the transformations of the territory over recent decades and their impacts on environmental sustainability, territorial planning, and agricultural competitiveness. In addition to identifying the changes that have occurred, this study seeks to evaluate the performance of existing planning instruments, considering their crucial role in regulating land use and influencing existing dynamics. The results show a significant increase in artificialized areas, resulting in considerable losses of agricultural land. However, policies aimed at agricultural valorization and innovation have driven a partial recovery of these areas particularly in the Oeste and Lezíria do Tejo regions. Simultaneously, the increase in forested areas reflects environmental preservation efforts and biodiversity conservation, aligning with the goals of the PNPOT, PROF, and PROT. Irrigated agriculture has proven essential for the region's agricultural development and competitiveness by maintaining high productivity levels. Its evolution was analyzed through the Annual Map of Spring/Summer Temporary Crops, developed in Google Earth Engine, which achieved an overall accuracy of 97,6% with COSc 2021 and 95,8% with IFAP data. Finally, future scenarios were developed using the Random Forest classifier to assess the suitability of irrigated agriculture in the context of climate change. The trained model has an overall accuracy of 74,3%. The results of this study highlight the potential of monitoring and prediction tools in territorial management and planning, supporting decision-making on efficient water management, environmental conservation, and the integration of urban and rural areas, ensuring alignment with the objectives of planning instruments.
The analysis of land use and land cover dynamics in the Lisbon and Vale do Tejo Region is one of the main objectives of this dissertation and is essential for understanding the transformations of the territory over recent decades and their impacts on environmental sustainability, territorial planning, and agricultural competitiveness. In addition to identifying the changes that have occurred, this study seeks to evaluate the performance of existing planning instruments, considering their crucial role in regulating land use and influencing existing dynamics. The results show a significant increase in artificialized areas, resulting in considerable losses of agricultural land. However, policies aimed at agricultural valorization and innovation have driven a partial recovery of these areas particularly in the Oeste and Lezíria do Tejo regions. Simultaneously, the increase in forested areas reflects environmental preservation efforts and biodiversity conservation, aligning with the goals of the PNPOT, PROF, and PROT. Irrigated agriculture has proven essential for the region's agricultural development and competitiveness by maintaining high productivity levels. Its evolution was analyzed through the Annual Map of Spring/Summer Temporary Crops, developed in Google Earth Engine, which achieved an overall accuracy of 97,6% with COSc 2021 and 95,8% with IFAP data. Finally, future scenarios were developed using the Random Forest classifier to assess the suitability of irrigated agriculture in the context of climate change. The trained model has an overall accuracy of 74,3%. The results of this study highlight the potential of monitoring and prediction tools in territorial management and planning, supporting decision-making on efficient water management, environmental conservation, and the integration of urban and rural areas, ensuring alignment with the objectives of planning instruments.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Dinâmicas de alteração Google Earth Engine Machine Learning SMOS Uso e Ocupação do solo