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Evaluating forest species response to different climate conditions as a base for sustainable forest management under climate change
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
To anticipate European climate scenarios for the end of the century, we explored the climate
gradient within the REINFFORCE (RÉseau INFrastructure de recherche pour le suivi et
l’adaptation des FORêts au Changement climatiquE) arboreta network, established in 38
sites between latitudes 37◦ and 57◦, where 35 tree species are represented. Understanding
how climate affects tree phenology, biotic and abiotic vulnerability, is a most important
research subject under Climate Change. We focused on determining which climatic
variables best explain their survival and growth, and identify which species that are more
tolerant to climate variation and those whose growth and survival future climate might
constrain. We used empirical models to determine the best climatic predictor variables that
explain tree survival and growth, to predict the impact on the specific response of tree
species to changing climate scenarios, to evaluate the loss and assess the risk of
maintaining or changing species, under each scenario. Considering the scenarios described
on IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, predictions were run under two main Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Precipitation-transfer distance was most
important for the survival of broadleaved species, whereas growing-season-degree days
best explained conifer-tree survival. Growth (annual height increment) was mainly explained
by a derived annual dryness index (ADI) for both conifers and broadleaved trees. Species
that showed the greatest variation in survival and growth in response to climatic variation
included Betula pendula Roth, Pinus elliottii Engelm., and Thuja plicata Donn ex D.Don, and
those that were least affected included Quercus shumardii Buckland and Pinus nigra
J.F.Arnold. We also demonstrated that provenance differences were significant for Pinus
pinea L., Quercus robur L., and Ceratonia siliqua L. A higher survival risk is expected for
conifer species, especially for species like Calocedrus decurrens, Pseudotsuga menziesii,
and Pinus nigra. For growth, high risk is indicated for Larix decidua, Pinus pinaster, and Betula pendula. Risk distribution points to higher risk at southern sites, and higher
production potential for northern sites. Here, we demonstrate the usefulness of
infrastructures along a climatic gradient like REINFFORCE to determine major tendencies
of tree species responding to climate changes
Descrição
Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia / UL
Palavras-chave
climate response climate adaptation REINFORCE Pinus Quercus Cedrus Eucalyptus Betula Pseudotsuga Sequoia
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Correia, A.H.C.G.S. - Evaluating forest species response to different climate conditions as a base for sustainable forest management under climate change. Lisboa: ISA, 2019, 197 p.