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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Floods are natural disasters that often impact communities living in low-lying areas in the
northern and central parts of Morocco. In this study, our aim was to create a flood susceptibility map
using three methods; the hierarchy process (AHP) frequency ratio model (FR) and the weights of
evidence (WoE) model. We extensively examined the area identified by these approaches using a
hydraulic analysis software called HEC-RAS (version 6.3.1). Our analysis focused on the Essaouira
watersheds in Morocco, where we identified around 197 flood locations. Out of these, we randomly
selected 70% for modeling purposes while the remaining 30% were used for validation. Ten factors
that influence floods were considered, such as slope, elevation, proximity to rivers, drainage density,
stream order, land use patterns, rainfall data, lithology (permeability level) index (TWI), and curvature.
We obtained these factors from data sources. Finally, we generated a flood susceptibility map
and evaluated its accuracy by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). The validation results
confirmed that all three models were robust and effective with an AUC of 90. Moreover, the research
uncovered a trend of vulnerability with the most susceptible area being in close proximity to the city of
Essaouira along the Oued Ksob. A detailed analysis using HEC-RAS was conducted at this identified
location, pinpointing the village of Diabat as highly exposed. These findings hold significance for
flood management, empowering decision makers, scholars, and urban planners to make informed
choices and implement strategies that can minimize the impact of floods in susceptible regions while
minimizing potential damages.
Description
Keywords
Flood susceptibility Analytic hierarchy process Frequency ratio Weights of evidence HEC-RAS Essaouira (Morocco)
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Khouz, A., Trindade, J., Santos, P. P., Oliveira, S. C., El Bchari, F., Bougadir, B., Garcia, R. A. C., Reis, E., Jadoud, M., Saouabe, T., & Rachidi, S. (2023). Flood susceptibility assessment through statistical models and HEC-RAS analysis for sustainable management in Essaouira Province, Morocco. Geosciences 13(12), 382. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13120382
Publisher
MDPI