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Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options

2023Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Paulo Flores
dc.contributor.authorMoreira, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorCanadas, Maria João
dc.contributor.authorNovais, Ana
dc.contributor.authorLeal, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorBergonse, Rafaello
dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José
dc.contributor.authorSantos, José Lima
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-06T14:42:43Z
dc.date.available2023-03-06T14:42:43Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationRibeiro, P. F., Moreira, F., Canadas, M. J., Novais, A., Leal, M., Oliveira, S., Bergonse, R., Zêzere, J. L., & Santos, J. L. (2023). Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options. Fire, 6(3),102. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6030102pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/fire6030102pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2571-6255
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/56542
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relationPCIF/AGT/0136/2017pt_PT
dc.relationUIDB/00239/2020pt_PT
dc.relationUIDB/00295/2020pt_PT
dc.relationUIDP/00295/2020)pt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/3/102pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectWildfire mitigationpt_PT
dc.subjectWildfire policypt_PT
dc.subjectFire regimept_PT
dc.subjectAgent-based modellingpt_PT
dc.subjectLand cover choicept_PT
dc.subjectFire resiliencept_PT
dc.titlePromoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy optionspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage102pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleFirept_PT
oaire.citation.volume6pt_PT
person.familyNameLeal
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNameBergonse
person.familyNameZêzere
person.givenNameMiguel
person.givenNameSandra
person.givenNameRafaello
person.givenNameJosé Luís
person.identifierH-9956-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id3B14-2560-2424
person.identifier.ciencia-id8A16-4976-FD63
person.identifier.ciencia-id511D-EE6B-47E3
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7361-0542
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6253-4353
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6709-0547
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3953-673X
person.identifier.ridAAK-5051-2020
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55891877100
person.identifier.scopus-author-id17435272900
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6507109389
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication806988d5-696f-43bc-aa02-c01e292cf78d
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd30eb4c5-8ef1-426b-8e80-baa646b30f0e
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationafc0ff7c-93b7-4b19-9114-bcebf45fc068
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationa49d5ad5-533a-4973-b8c6-a4f201b1cf62
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverya49d5ad5-533a-4973-b8c6-a4f201b1cf62

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