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Decoding the spatial dynamics of sales and rental prices in a high-pressure Portuguese housing market: a random forest approach for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area

2025Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorLeal, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorCarreiras, Marina
dc.contributor.authorAlves, Sónia
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-15T16:21:24Z
dc.date.available2025-01-15T16:21:24Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractSales and rental prices were analysed at parish level using random forest regression for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Three dependent variables (new sales, new rents, and all rents) and a set of independent variables/associated factors were used, including location, building/dwelling characteristics, socioeconomic features, and tourism. This geographically-based approach aims not to predict housing prices, but to identify relevant factors associated with sales/rents, ranking their importance. The temporal dimension is also explored by comparing new and all existing rents. The results revealed similarities and differences between housing submarkets. New sales and new rents had similar spatial patterns and dynamics but were different from that of all rents, with different regulations over time. Strong associations were found between the dependent variables and the population's social status and urban quality. However, while location was more strongly related to new sales and new rents, revealing a greater dependence on the current dynamics of the housing market, socioeconomic features were more closely related to all rents, expressing the urban and demographic dynamics of recent decades. Different associated factors prevail inside and outside the Lisbon municipality. The results contribute to a better understanding of housing submarkets and the relationships between sales/rents and associated factors.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationLeal, M., Carreiras, M. & Alves, S. (2025). Decoding the spatial dynamics of sales and rental prices in a high-pressure Portuguese housing market: a random forest approach for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Cities, Vol. 158, pp. 1-19. (Available online 7 December 2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105631pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.cities.2024.105631pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0264-2751
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/97228
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation101086488pt_PT
dc.relationImigração, Território e Estratégias de Habitação - Imigração, gentrificação e produção de cidade: Um estudo da situação na Área Metropolitana de Lisboa de Maruna Gaboleira Carreiras
dc.relationNot Available
dc.relationInterdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relationLaboratory for Sustainable Land Use and Ecosystem Services
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectHousingpt_PT
dc.subjectReal estatept_PT
dc.subjectSales pricespt_PT
dc.subjectRental pricespt_PT
dc.subjectRandom forestpt_PT
dc.subjectMachine learningpt_PT
dc.titleDecoding the spatial dynamics of sales and rental prices in a high-pressure Portuguese housing market: a random forest approach for the Lisbon Metropolitan Areapt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleImigração, Território e Estratégias de Habitação - Imigração, gentrificação e produção de cidade: Um estudo da situação na Área Metropolitana de Lisboa de Maruna Gaboleira Carreiras
oaire.awardTitleNot Available
oaire.awardTitleInterdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardTitleLaboratory for Sustainable Land Use and Ecosystem Services
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//PD%2FBD%2F114270%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/DL 57%2F2016/DL 57%2F2016%2FCP1441%2FCT0017/PT
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oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/Concurso de avaliação no âmbito do Programa Plurianual de Financiamento de Unidades de I&D (2017%2F2018) - Financiamento Base/UIDB%2F00295%2F2020/PT
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oaire.citation.endPage19pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleCitiespt_PT
oaire.citation.volume158pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamDL 57/2016
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamConcurso de avaliação no âmbito do Programa Plurianual de Financiamento de Unidades de I&D (2017/2018) - Financiamento Programático
oaire.fundingStreamConcurso de avaliação no âmbito do Programa Plurianual de Financiamento de Unidades de I&D (2017/2018) - Financiamento Base
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamConcurso para Atribuição do Estatuto e Financiamento de Laboratórios Associados (LA)
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameAlves
person.givenNameSónia
person.identifier.ciencia-idC615-9715-565A
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1231-8588
person.identifier.ridAAN-4439-2021
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56125008200
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rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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