| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.46 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A constatação da existência de uma componente permanente no aumento do desemprego na
Europa, em particular na Europa Comunitária, após as políticas de desinflação levadas a
cabo no início da década de 80, tem desafiado as premissas subjacentes à teoria da taxa
natural de desemprego.
De facto, a literatura, em geral, aponta para a não existência de um factor, ou conjunto de
factores, determinante(s) da taxa natural que explique(m) o aumento da taxa de desemprego
verificada.
No sentido de dar resposta a este vazio teórico, surgiram teorias alternativas, nomeadamente
teorias de persistência e histerese e a teoria estruturalista. No primeiro caso, a dinâmica
assenta na hipótese da taxa de desemprego de equilíbrio depender da taxa de desemprego
verificada ao longo do tempo. A teoria estruturalista, proposta por Edmund Phelps, baseiase
na hipótese da trajectória da taxa de desemprego de equilíbrio ser conduzida por uma
taxa natural que varia endogenamente, i.e., que constitui uma variável do sistema^'
Na presente dissertação analisa-se a evolução da teoria da taxa natural, que conduziu à
proposta de endogenização da mesma. É apresentada a teoria que corporiza essa
endogenização e estimada uma equação do desemprego, baseada no modelo econométrico
que serve de teste ao novo quadro teórico, considerando dados sobre Portugal relativos ao
período entre 1966 e 1996. Os resultados obtidos não permitem estabelecer, no que diz
respeito à realidade portuguesa, a relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo subjacente à teoria
estruturalista.
The realisation of a permanent component to the rise of unemployment in Europe, particularly in the European Community, after the desinflation policies carried out at the beginning of the eighties, has challenged the basic assumptions of the natural rate theory. In fact, most literature, points out to the inexistence of a factor, or a set of factors, considered as determinants of the natural rate, that could account for the rise of the actual unemployment rate. In order to overcome this theoretical gap, several altemative theories have arisen, namely those based on the concept of hysteresis and the structuralist theory. The first type of theories assume that the equilibrium unemployment rate follows the path of the actual unemployment rate through time. The structuralist theory developed by Edmund Phelps, considers the equilibrium unemployment path as driven by a natural rate endogenously determined, i.e., the later is a variable of the system. The present dissertation offers an analysis of the developments of the natural rate theory which led to its treatment as a variable. Furthermore, it presents the framework which made it possible. The econometric model suggested by Phelps as a test to the theory is then applied: an equation of Portuguese unemployment is estimated and results reveal that one cannot establish the long run equilibrium relationship porposed by the structuralist theory.
The realisation of a permanent component to the rise of unemployment in Europe, particularly in the European Community, after the desinflation policies carried out at the beginning of the eighties, has challenged the basic assumptions of the natural rate theory. In fact, most literature, points out to the inexistence of a factor, or a set of factors, considered as determinants of the natural rate, that could account for the rise of the actual unemployment rate. In order to overcome this theoretical gap, several altemative theories have arisen, namely those based on the concept of hysteresis and the structuralist theory. The first type of theories assume that the equilibrium unemployment rate follows the path of the actual unemployment rate through time. The structuralist theory developed by Edmund Phelps, considers the equilibrium unemployment path as driven by a natural rate endogenously determined, i.e., the later is a variable of the system. The present dissertation offers an analysis of the developments of the natural rate theory which led to its treatment as a variable. Furthermore, it presents the framework which made it possible. The econometric model suggested by Phelps as a test to the theory is then applied: an equation of Portuguese unemployment is estimated and results reveal that one cannot establish the long run equilibrium relationship porposed by the structuralist theory.
Description
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira.
Keywords
desemprego equilíbrio geral histerese taxa natural teoria real general equilibrium hysteresis natural rate real theory unemployment
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Sousa, Sílvia Cristina Conduto de (1999). " Persistência do desemprego - análise da teoria estruturalista". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
ISEG