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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Portugal, em 1999, participou no grupo fundador da União Económica e Monetária
Europeia (zona euro), perdendo o instrumento taxa de câmbio. Ao longo de todo o
processo de convergência foi visível uma clara tendência de apreciação da taxa de
câmbio real. Esta é definida como o preço relativo dos bens transaccionáveis face aos
não-transaccionáveis.
Procurou-se analisar em que medida essa tendência foi um fenómeno de equilíbrio, ou
se, pelo contrário, reflectiu uma situação de perda de competitividade externa. Por
outro lado, pretendeu-se identificar quais os principais factores a explicarem essa
tendência de apreciação.
Os resultados empíricos permitiram concluir que; i) a apreciação foi um fenómeno de
equilíbrio, desta forma não gerando uma perda excessiva de competitividade, mas
antes reflectindo o processo de convergência real da economia portuguesa. Em 1999,
quando da adopção do euro, a taxa de câmbio real do escudo não se encontrava muito
afastada do seu nível de equilíbrio; ii) as principais determinantes desta tendência de
longo prazo foram os fundos comunitários e a despesa pública, além dos termos de
troca, do progresso técnico e das remessas de emigrantes.
A análise permitiu ainda identificar factores de risco para o futuro. Por um lado, a
esperada redução dos fundos comunitários implicará um abrandamento do processo
de apreciação da taxa de câmbio real de equilíbrio, o que coloca pressões ao nível da
apreciação da taxa de câmbio real, que terá de ser igualmente mais limitada. Por outro
lado, a despesa pública, na análise da dinâmica de curto prazo, contribui para a
apreciação da taxa de câmbio real, por via do mercado de não transaccionáveis, e a
recente aceleração da despesa pública, apesar da redução do défice público aumenta os
factores de desestabilização macroeconómica.
Sai, assim, reforçada a necessidade de aprofundar as reformas estruturais da economia
portuguesa, flexibilizando os mercados de bens e de trabalho, além da consolidação
das contas públicas, sobretudo através do controlo da despesa pública, visando o
rápido cumprimento do Pacto de Estabilidade e Crescimento.
Portugal, in January 1999, was one of the founding members of the Europcan Economic and Monetary Union (the euro area), loosing the exchange rate as an economic policy instrument. During the whole convergence process, the escudo revealed a clear appreciation trend of the exchange rate in real terms. We have defined the real exchange rate as the relative price of tradables relative to non-tradables. Our aim was to evaluate in what extent was such appreciation an equilibrium movement or, on the contrary, was it a situation of loss of externai competitiveness. On the other hand, we also wanted to identify which factors contributed to such appreciation movement. The empirical result we found led to the following conclusions: i) the real appreciation was an equilibrium movement, not reflecting losses in competitiveness, but rather the real convergence of the Portuguese economy. In 1999, when the euro was finally launched, the real exchange rate of the escudo was not too deviated from its equilibrium levei; ii) behind this appreciation trend were public transfers from the European Union and public expenditure, as well as terms of trade, technical progress and emigranfs remittances. The analysis also pointed to some potential risks. On the one hand, the expected reduction in transfers from the European Union will be reflected into slower appreciation of the real equilibrium exchange rate, calling therefore for a more limited real appreciation. On the other hand, public expenditure has an important role in the short-term dynamics of the real exchange rate, leading to an appreciation through the market of non-tradable goods, and the recent increase in public expenditure, despite a smaller public deficit, increases the factors of macroeconomic destabilization. Therefore, there is an increased need to implement the required structural reforms of the Portuguese economy, making goods and labour markets more flexible, in line with the consolidation of the fiscal accounts, in particular in terms of more controlled public expenditure, aiming at the compliance with the targets set in the Growth and Stability Pact.
Portugal, in January 1999, was one of the founding members of the Europcan Economic and Monetary Union (the euro area), loosing the exchange rate as an economic policy instrument. During the whole convergence process, the escudo revealed a clear appreciation trend of the exchange rate in real terms. We have defined the real exchange rate as the relative price of tradables relative to non-tradables. Our aim was to evaluate in what extent was such appreciation an equilibrium movement or, on the contrary, was it a situation of loss of externai competitiveness. On the other hand, we also wanted to identify which factors contributed to such appreciation movement. The empirical result we found led to the following conclusions: i) the real appreciation was an equilibrium movement, not reflecting losses in competitiveness, but rather the real convergence of the Portuguese economy. In 1999, when the euro was finally launched, the real exchange rate of the escudo was not too deviated from its equilibrium levei; ii) behind this appreciation trend were public transfers from the European Union and public expenditure, as well as terms of trade, technical progress and emigranfs remittances. The analysis also pointed to some potential risks. On the one hand, the expected reduction in transfers from the European Union will be reflected into slower appreciation of the real equilibrium exchange rate, calling therefore for a more limited real appreciation. On the other hand, public expenditure has an important role in the short-term dynamics of the real exchange rate, leading to an appreciation through the market of non-tradable goods, and the recent increase in public expenditure, despite a smaller public deficit, increases the factors of macroeconomic destabilization. Therefore, there is an increased need to implement the required structural reforms of the Portuguese economy, making goods and labour markets more flexible, in line with the consolidation of the fiscal accounts, in particular in terms of more controlled public expenditure, aiming at the compliance with the targets set in the Growth and Stability Pact.
Description
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Keywords
Taxa de câmbio real Política cambial Política orçamental União Económica e Monetária Modelos econométricos Real exchange rate Exchange rate policy Fiscal policy Monetary and Economic Union Econometric models
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Constantino, Rui António Lopes (2001). " Fundos comunitários e competitividade externa . O caso português". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão