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Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants

2023Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorCapinha, César
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-13T10:24:51Z
dc.date.available2023-09-13T10:24:51Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractThe mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numer-ous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns.2. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent.3. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictusmight enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suit-ability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model.4. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector- borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different re-gions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount.pt_PT
dc.description.abstractand by the Research Unit and . S.O. was funded through FCT, I.P., under the programme ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment—Individual Support’ within the contract ‘2020.03873.CEECINDpt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationOliveira, S., Capinha, C., & Rocha, J. (2023). Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants. Journal of Applied Ecology, 60(11), 2362-2374. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14503pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1365-2664.14503pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1365-2664
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/59249
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherBritish Ecological Societypt_PT
dc.relationProject ‘TRIAD— health Risk and social vulnerability to Arboviral Diseases in mainland Portugal’ [PTDC/GES-OUT/30210/2017]pt_PT
dc.relationUIDB/00295/2020pt_PT
dc.relationUIDP/00295/2020pt_PT
dc.relationprogramme ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment—Individual Support’ within the contract ‘2020.03873.CEECINDpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.14503pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectAedes albopictuspt_PT
dc.subjectClimatic similaritypt_PT
dc.subjectInternational tradept_PT
dc.subjectInvasive speciespt_PT
dc.subjectPublic healthpt_PT
dc.subjectTime of arrivalpt_PT
dc.titlePredicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plantspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage2374
oaire.citation.issue11
oaire.citation.startPage2362
oaire.citation.titleJournal of Applied Ecologypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume60
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNameCapinha
person.familyNameRocha
person.givenNameSandra
person.givenNameCésar
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifier0000000069085031
person.identifier.ciencia-id8A16-4976-FD63
person.identifier.ciencia-id7714-2A88-CDE3
person.identifier.ciencia-idEC15-76DC-9B96
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6253-4353
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0666-9755
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7228-6330
person.identifier.ridAAK-5051-2020
person.identifier.ridK-6439-2017
person.identifier.ridF-3185-2017
person.identifier.scopus-author-id17435272900
person.identifier.scopus-author-id32867555000
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56428061000
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd30eb4c5-8ef1-426b-8e80-baa646b30f0e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication4c666e7e-4ba8-4a41-8064-d26b3b9fc0f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication9c7dabc1-d6c6-4636-9293-6babe2ba64c9
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery4c666e7e-4ba8-4a41-8064-d26b3b9fc0f8

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