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Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

2020Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorEssl, Franz
dc.contributor.authorLenzner, Bernd
dc.contributor.authorBacher, Sven
dc.contributor.authorBailey, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorCapinha, César
dc.contributor.authorDaehler, Curtis
dc.contributor.authorDullinger, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorGenovesi, Piero
dc.contributor.authorHui, Cang
dc.contributor.authorHulme, Philip E.
dc.contributor.authorJeschke, Jonathan M.
dc.contributor.authorKatsanevakis, Stelios
dc.contributor.authorKühn, Ingolf
dc.contributor.authorLeung, Brian
dc.contributor.authorLiebhold, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Chunlong
dc.contributor.authorMacIsaac, Hugh J.
dc.contributor.authorMeyerson, Laura A.
dc.contributor.authorNuñez, Martin A.
dc.contributor.authorPauchard, Aníbal
dc.contributor.authorPyšek, Petr
dc.contributor.authorRabitsch, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.authorRichardson, David M.
dc.contributor.authorRoy, Helen E.
dc.contributor.authorRuiz, Gregory M.
dc.contributor.authorRussell, James C.
dc.contributor.authorSanders, Nathan J.
dc.contributor.authorSax, Dov F.
dc.contributor.authorScalera, Riccardo
dc.contributor.authorSeebens, Hanno
dc.contributor.authorSpringborn, Michael
dc.contributor.authorTurbelin, Anna
dc.contributor.authorKleunen, Mark
dc.contributor.authorHolle, Betsy
dc.contributor.authorWinter, Marten
dc.contributor.authorZenni, Rafael D.
dc.contributor.authorMattsson, Brady J.
dc.contributor.authorRoura‐Pascual, Nuria
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-23T11:24:54Z
dc.date.available2020-07-23T11:24:54Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationEssl, F, Lenzner, B, Bacher, S, et al. (2020). Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment. Glob Change Biol., 26(9), 4880-4893. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.15199pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/44124
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sonspt_PT
dc.relationCEECIND/, 02037, /2017, UIDB/, 00295/2020, UIDP/00295/2020pt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.15199pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectBiological invasionspt_PT
dc.subjectExpert surveypt_PT
dc.subjectGlobalizationpt_PT
dc.subjectImpactspt_PT
dc.subjectManagementpt_PT
dc.subjectPolicypt_PT
dc.subjectScenariospt_PT
dc.subjectUncertaintiespt_PT
dc.titleDrivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessmentpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage4893pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue9
oaire.citation.startPage4880pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Change Biologypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume26
person.familyNameCapinha
person.givenNameCésar
person.identifier.ciencia-id7714-2A88-CDE3
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0666-9755
person.identifier.ridK-6439-2017
person.identifier.scopus-author-id32867555000
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication4c666e7e-4ba8-4a41-8064-d26b3b9fc0f8
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery4c666e7e-4ba8-4a41-8064-d26b3b9fc0f8

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