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Modeling debris flow initiation and run-out in recently burned areas using data-driven methods
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
In the framework of the landslide susceptibility assessment, the maps produced
should include not only the landslide initiation areas, but also those areas potentially
affected by the traveling mobilized material. To achieve this purpose, the susceptibility
analysis must be separated in two distinct components: (1) The first one, which is also the
most discussed in the literature, deals with the susceptibility to failure, and (2) the second
component refers to the run-out modeling using the initiation areas as an input. Therefore,
in this research we present a debris flow susceptibility assessment in a recently burned area
in a mountain zone in central Portugal. The modeling of debris flow initiation areas is
performed using two statistical methods: a bivariate (information value) and a multivariate
(logistic regression). The independent validation of the results generated areas under the
receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.91 and 0.98. The slope angle, plan
curvature, soil thickness and lithology proved to be the most relevant predisposing factors
for the debris flow initiation in recently burned areas. The run-out is simulated by applying
two different methods: the empirical model Flow Path Assessment of Gravitational
Hazards at a Regional Scale (Flow-R) and the hydrological algorithm D-infinity downslope
influence (DI). The run-out modeling of the 36 initiation areas included in the debris flow
inventory delivered a true positive rate of 83.5% for Flow-R and 80.5% for DI, reflecting a
good performance of both models. Finally, the susceptibility map for the entire basin
including both the initiation and the run-out areas in a scenario of a recent wildfire was
produced by combining the four models mentioned above.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Debris flow Initiation areas Run-out Data-driven methods Burned areas
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Melo, R., & Zêzere, J. L. (2017). Modeling debris flow initiation and run-out in recently burned areas using data-driven methods. Natural Hazards, 88(3), 1373–1407. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2921-4
Editora
Springer