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O Impacto do Turismo no Mercado Imobiliário em Portugal (Modelação e Previsão) – Região de Lisboa
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Antes de realizar o principal objetivo deste estudo, modelar e prever o impacto do turismo no
preço por 𝑚2 nos municípios de Lisboa, foi realizado um enquadramento teórico, onde foi definido
o turismo, quais as suas tipologias, análise do turismo Mundial e Nacional. Relativamente as
atividades turísticas em Portugal, foi analisada a sua evolução, o impacto do setor na economia, a
distribuição geográfica e o perfil dos turistas. Por último, no que diz respeito ao turismo, foi
estudada a importância e relevância da região de Lisboa.
O Setor Imobiliário, também foi caso de estudo, como foi a evolução deste mercado em
Portugal, o que é a especulação imobiliária e tal como no turismo, qual o enquadramento de Lisboa
neste setor.
Apesar da importância e impacto da pandemia mundial, presente na atualidade, relativa à
doença infeciosa de coronavírus (Covid-19), este tema não foi sujeito a analise de estudo, devido à
sua imprevisibilidade.
Relativamente ao propósito de estudo deste projeto, para modelar e prever o impacto do turismo
no mercado imobiliário, representada pelo “Valor do m2 nos municípios do distrito de Lisboa”, foi
utilizado o PIB (Produto Interno Bruto), o IDH (Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano), o IPC
(Índice de Preços ao Consumidor) e Taxa de câmbio como variáveis explicativas. A precisão do
modelo foi obtida adicionando, para além de Portugal, os cinco países, com maior taxa de aquisição
de imóveis em 2019, Brasil, França, China, Reino Unido e Angola.
A modelação foi realizada através da Regressão Linear Múltipla, obtendo dois modelos, 1 e 2,
em que o modelo 2 é o que melhor permite explicar a variável dependente (Preço). O coeficiente
de correlação de Pearson, 𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 (Erro Percentual Absoluto Médio) e a 𝑆𝑆𝐸 (Soma dos quadrados
dos erros), foram os métodos utilizados para avaliar a precisão e a qualidade dos modelos utilizados.
Before passing out for the main purpose of this study, model and predict the impact of tourism on the price per 𝑚2 in Lisbon, a theoretical context was made, where was defined the tourism, its typologies, its impact Worldwide and mostly in Portugal. Regarding tourist activities in Portugal it was analyzed, its evolution, the impact of the sector on the economy, the geographical distribution, and the profile of tourists. Finally, regard tourism, was also mentioned the importance and relevance specifically in the region of Lisbon. The Real Estate Sector was also a case study, as was the evolution of this market in Portugal, what is its speculation and, as in tourism, what is the influence of this sector in Lisbon. Despite the importance and impact of the global pandemic, currently present, related to the infectious disease of coronaviruses (Covid-19), this topic was not subject of study analysis, due to its unpredictability. Regarding the purpose of studying this project, to model and predict the impact of tourism on the real estate market, represented by the “Value of 𝑚2 Lisbon”, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the HDI (Human Development Index), the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Exchange Rate was used as explanatory variables. The model's precision was obtained by including, in addition to Portugal, the five countries with the highest rate of property acquisition in 2019, Brazil, France, China, United Kingdom and Angola. The modeling was conducted by using the Multiple Linear Regression, obtaining two models, 1 and 2, in which the second model is the one that best explains the dependent variable (Price). Pearson's correlation coefficient, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and SSE (Sum of Squares of Errors) were the methods used to evaluate the precision and quality of the models used.
Before passing out for the main purpose of this study, model and predict the impact of tourism on the price per 𝑚2 in Lisbon, a theoretical context was made, where was defined the tourism, its typologies, its impact Worldwide and mostly in Portugal. Regarding tourist activities in Portugal it was analyzed, its evolution, the impact of the sector on the economy, the geographical distribution, and the profile of tourists. Finally, regard tourism, was also mentioned the importance and relevance specifically in the region of Lisbon. The Real Estate Sector was also a case study, as was the evolution of this market in Portugal, what is its speculation and, as in tourism, what is the influence of this sector in Lisbon. Despite the importance and impact of the global pandemic, currently present, related to the infectious disease of coronaviruses (Covid-19), this topic was not subject of study analysis, due to its unpredictability. Regarding the purpose of studying this project, to model and predict the impact of tourism on the real estate market, represented by the “Value of 𝑚2 Lisbon”, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the HDI (Human Development Index), the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Exchange Rate was used as explanatory variables. The model's precision was obtained by including, in addition to Portugal, the five countries with the highest rate of property acquisition in 2019, Brazil, France, China, United Kingdom and Angola. The modeling was conducted by using the Multiple Linear Regression, obtaining two models, 1 and 2, in which the second model is the one that best explains the dependent variable (Price). Pearson's correlation coefficient, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and SSE (Sum of Squares of Errors) were the methods used to evaluate the precision and quality of the models used.
Descrição
Trabalho de projeto de mestrado, Matemática Aplicada à Economia e Gestão, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2022
Palavras-chave
Lisboa Turismo Imobiliário Modelos 𝑚2 Trabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2022