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Globalisation and economic growth : a panel data approach

Publication . Ferreira, Cândida

Using different kinds of panel unit root and cointegration tests as well as panel estimations this paper seeks to improve upon the existing literature by testing the possible relationship between globalisation and the real GDP of 29 countries across almost all continents for the period 1970–2013. The results obtained allow us to confirm that globalisation is clearly relevant to economic growth, mostly when globalisation is proxied by variables related to international transactions, but also when it is proxied with the globalisation indexes and sub-indexes provided by the database of the Swiss think-tank KOF. There is also clear evidence that the long-run relationships, measured through panel cointegration, are stronger among the countries belonging to the same continent, Europe, as well as among those with a higher GDP per capita.

2018-09Working paper

Open access

The effects of official and unofficial information on tax compliance

Publication . Garcia, Filomena; Opromolla, Luca David; Vezzulli, Andrea; Marques, Rafael

The administration of tax policy has shifted its focus from enforcement to complementary instruments aimed at creating a social norm of tax compliance. In this paper we provide an analysis of the effects of the dissemination of information regarding the past degree of tax evasion at the social level on the current individual tax compliance behavior. We build an experiment where, for given levels of audit probabilities, fines and tax rates, subjects have to declare their income after receiving either a communication of the offcial average tax evasion rate or a private message from a group of randomly matched peers about their tax behavior. We use the experimental data to estimate a dynamic econometric model of tax evasion. The econometric model extends the Allingham-Sandmo-Yitzhaki tax evasion model to include self-consistency and endogenous social interactions among taxpayers. We find four main results. First, tax compliance is very persistent. Second, the higher the offcial past tax evasion rate the higher the degree of persistence: evaders are more likely to evade again, and compliant individuals are more likely to comply again. Third, when all peers communicate to have evaded (complied) in the past, both evaders and compliant individuals are more likely to evade (comply). Fourth, while both treatments, and especially the unoffcial information treatment, are associated, in the context of our experiment, with a signicantly larger growth in evasion intensity, the aggregate effect depends on the characteristics of the population. In countries with inherently low levels of tax evasion, offcial information can have beneficial effects by consolidating the behavior of compliant individuals. However, in countries with inherently high levels of tax evasion, offcial information can have detrimental effects by intensifying the behavior of evaders. In both cases, the impact of offcial information is magnified in the presence of strong peer effects.

2018-04Working paper

Open access

Unconditional Basic Income : Who gets it? Who pays for it? A social Accounting Approach to Distribution

Publication . Reich, Utz Peter; Santos, Susana

Unconditional basic income is not a new topic in political economy, and it gains new momentum as more and more research is being devoted to it. The discussion focusses on the adequacy and effects such a policy measure may entail for a person and his socio‐economic situation, usually. Object of investigation is the individual, and the corresponding theory is of microeconomic descent. In this paper, in contrast, we develop a method of how to assess feasibility and consequences of an unconditional basic income for a modern, open economy, on the macroeconomic level, using concepts and statistics of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) as our main tool. A SAM‐based approach can measure, and perhaps model, the impact on the economic activity of a country, and on its economic institutions of new policy measures such as introducing an unconditional basic income. The economic activity of a country is expressed in monetary flows as registered in the National Accounts. So their underlying principles and definitions are adopted. However, the habitual way of putting an economy into a sequence of institutional accounts connecting each institution’s income to the cost, ‐ similar to business accounting ‐ reveals only one, namely the inner‐institutional half of the economic circuit. The other, outer half, namely, how the costs of one institution generate income for another one is better captured by the format of a Social Accounting Matrix. In the paper, the impact of an unconditional basic income is quantified, for macroeconomic aggregates of institutional sectors and socio‐economic groups of households, taking the German and the Portuguese economies as examples. Purpose of the paper is not to argue for, or against, an unconditional basic income, but to offer a scientific tool with which to calculate and assess possibilities and consequences of the proposal, for a national economy as a whole.

2018-08-28Working paper

Open access

Financial crisis, banking sector performance and economic growth in the European Union

Publication . Ferreira, Cândida

This paper uses static and dynamic panel estimates in a sample including all 28 European Union countries during the last decade and provides empirical evidence on the important role that well-functioning EU banking institutions can play in promoting economic growth. The banking sector performance is proxied by the evolution of some relevant financial ratios and economic growth is represented by the annual Gross Domestic Product growth rate. In order to analyse the possible differences arising after the outbreak of the recent international financial crisis, the estimations consider two panels: one for the time period 1998–2012 and another for the subinterval 2007–2012. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions not only on the importance of the variation of the different operational, capital, liquidity and assets quality financial ratios to economic growth but also on some differences evidenced in the two considered panels, reflecting the consequences of the recent financial crisis and the correspondent reactions of the European banking institutions.

2017-10Working paper

Open access

Does country size affect the relationship between population density and labour productivity? Theory and evidence for Europe

Publication . Pontes, José Pedro; Melo, Patrícia

The empirical literature on the relationship between labour productivity and urbanisation economies has considered the presence of variable returns to density, but it has not investigated the existence of a heterogeneous relationship according to country size. This paper proposes a theoretical model which can explain why the relationship between regional labour productivity and population density may differ in strength between small and large countries. To test the proposed theory, we carry out an empirical regression analysis using NUTS2-level data on GDP per capita and population density for the EU28 countries. The results from the empirical analysis corroborate the theoretical model and indicate the relationship is linear and stronger for regions in small countries compared to large countries.

2018-01Working paper

Open access