Territorial population imbalance in Mainland Portugal: understanding the past and the present to mitigate the territorial population imbalance in the future

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Spatiotemporal Land-Use Dynamics in Continental Portugal 1995–2018

Publication . Alves, André; Marcelino, Filipe; Gomes, Eduardo; Rocha, Jorge; Caetano, Mário

Monitoring land-use patterns and its trends provides useful information for impact evaluation and policy design. The latest in-depth studies of land-use dynamics for continental Portugal are outdated, and have not examined how municipalities may be classified into a typology of observed dynamics or considered the trajectory profiles of land-use transitions. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of land-use in continental Portugal from 1995 to 2018. Our multi-scalar approach used land-use maps in geographic information systems with the following objectives: (i) quantify variations of land-use classes, (ii) assess the transitions between uses, and (iii) derive a municipal typology of land-use dynamics. The methodology employed involved calculating statistical indicators of land-use classes, transition matrices between uses and combinatorial analysis for the most common trajectory-profiles. For the typology, a principal component analysis was used for dimensionality reduction and the respective components were classified by testing several clustering techniques. Results showed that the land-use transitions were not homogeneous in space or time, leading to the growth of territorial asymmetries. Forest (Δ5%), water bodies (Δ28%) and artificial surfaces (Δ35%) had a greater expansion, as opposed to agricultural areas, which had the biggest decline (Δ-8%). Despite the decline of agricultural activities, olive-grove expansion (Δ7%) was a relevant dynamic, and in the case of forests, the increment of eucalyptus (Δ34%) replaced native species such as the maritime pine (Δ-20%). A land-use-dynamics typology was estimated, dividing continental Portugal into 11 clusters, which is informative for sectoral policies and spatial planning, as zonings in need of interventions tailored to their specificities. The findings are a contribution to the study of land-use dynamics in continental Portugal, presenting various challenges for sustainable land uses with regard to the urban system, forest management, food production, soil preservation, and ecosystem protection.

2022Artigo científico

Acesso aberto

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Future land use/cover changes and participatory planning

Publication . Gomes, Eduardo; Banos, Arnaud; Abrantes, Patrícia; Rocha, Jorge

Globally, land use/cover is facing irreversible damages caused by human activities and climate changes. These damages have occurred as a result of land conversions from natural and seminatural areas to anthropogenic uses such as urbanisation and intensive agricultural practices. Land conversions correspond to one of the main environmental threats characterised by a complex interconnection between different dimensions. One of the better approaches to assess these threats is through the creation of effective land-use planning instruments with the support of stakeholders. This can contribute to helping decision-makers to better identify, evaluate and anticipate potential land-use changes. This chapter proposes a conceptual framework to develop a better participatory planning process using complex spatial models and by engaging stakeholders. It is divided into four steps: (1) problem identification (by identifying the case study/stakeholders and establishing a time horizon), (2) future needs (by designing ‘what-if’ scenarios), (3) simulation of scenarios (by using spatially explicit dynamic models to explore future land use and land cover changes) and (4) policy recommendations (by creating land-use strategies). This analysis suggests that more participative planning and more action-oriented territorial development are required.

2022Capítulo de livro

Acesso restrito

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Entidade financiadora

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Programa de financiamento

CEEC IND 3ed

Número da atribuição

2020.00825.CEECIND/CP1614/CT0003