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- Differentiating fire regimes and their biophysical drivers in Central PortugalPublication . Bergonse, Rafaello; Oliveira, Sandra; Zêzere, José; Moreira, Francisco; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Leal, Miguel; Santos, José Manuel LimaWe characterize fire regimes in central Portugal and investigate the degree to which the differences between regimes are influenced by a set of biophysical drivers. Using civil parishes as units of analysis, we employ three complementary parameters to describe the fire regime over a reference period of 44 years (1975–2018), namely cumulative percentage of parish area burned, Gini concentration index of burned area over time, and area-weighted total number of wildfires. Cluster analysis is used to aggregate parishes into groups with similar fire regimes based on these parameters. A classification tree model is then used to assess the capacity of a set of potential biophysical drivers to discriminate between the different parish groups. The results allowed us to distinguish four types of fire regime and show that these can be significantly differentiated using the biophysical drivers, of which land use/land cover (LULC), slope, and spring rainfall are the most important. Among LULC classes, shrubland and herbaceous vegetation play the foremost role, followed by agriculture. Our results highlight the importance of vegetation type, availability, and rate of regeneration, as well as that of topography, in influencing fire regimes in the study area, while suggesting that these regimes should be subject to specific wildfire prevention and mitigation policies.
- Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy optionsPublication . Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Moreira, Francisco; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Leal, Miguel; Oliveira, Sandra; Bergonse, Rafaello; Zêzere, José; Santos, José LimaLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.