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Gama Carrilho da Costa Sousa, Carla Alexandra
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- Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in EuropePublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Sousa, Carla A.The Asian Tiger mosquito is already established in many countries in Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of the mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published modelling results that estimated the spatial distribution of the Aedes albopictus. We classified suitability and uncertainty levels according to the number of matching models on a 25 km cell basis and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 models for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between these two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.