Portuguese Economic Journal, 2004, Volume 3, Nº 2
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- Resource price trends and development prospectsPublication . Hamilton, Kirk; Bolt, KatharineIf natural resource prices follow exogenous paths, then future resource price changes must be reflected in current measures of resource depletion, as shown by Vincent et al. (1997). This result is extended to the measurement of income and saving in a small resource exporting economy. A precise formula for net (genuine) saving is derived when resource prices grow exogenously at the international inter- est rate. Empirical results are presented for over 100 countries and a dozen resource commodities, using historical real price trends to forecast future prices. Reductions in saving in excess of 1% of GNI are observed for over 20 countries.
- Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation : an application of FUNDPublication . Link, P. Michael; Tol, Richard S.J.Climate change can lead to a substantial reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the world oceans. This is often thought to have severe consequences particularly on the North Atlantic region and Northern and Western Europe. The integrated assessment model FUND is used to estimate the extent of these impacts. The results indicate that, owing to a slower warming (rather than cooling) of the regions most affected by a thermohaline circulation collapse, climate change induced damages in these regions would be smaller in case of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. However, even with a thermohaline circulation collapse, the total and marginal impacts of climate change are negative.
- Environmental market creation : saviour or oversell?Publication . Pearce, DavidIn recent years considerable attention has been paid to the notion of ‘market creation’ for the conservation of environmental assets. Market creation establishes a market in the external benefit or cost in question (e.g. biodiversity or pollution reduction) and leaves the relevant parties to adjust their behaviour accordingly. While most attention has been paid to market creation through tradable permits and taxes (the ‘polluter-pays’), it is less easy to secure a perspective on ‘beneficiary-pays’ initiatives. Both polluter-pays and beneficiary-pays initiatives are examples of modified Coaseian bargains in which governments intervene in the bargains to lower transactions costs, establish property rights, deal with public goods issues, or act on behalf of disadvantaged groups. This paper reviews four major initiatives in this respect – debt-for-nature swaps, bioprospecting and the Global Environment Facility at the global level, and the Costa Rican Forest Law at the local level. It finds that while there is much to applaud in initiatives in these new markets, serious questions remain about the modest flows of funds associated with such ‘global bargains’, and the extent to which they secure environmental improvements relative to the baseline of business-as-usual.
- Contingent valuation of ill health caused by pollution : testing for context and ordering effectsPublication . Ready, Richard; Navrud, Stale; Day, Brett; Dubourg, Richard; Machado, Fernando; Mourato, Susana; Spanninks, Frank; Vázquez Rodriquez, Maria XoséContingent valuation is being increasingly used to value episodes of ill health caused by environmental pollution. In contrast to studies that have used contingent valuation to value other types of non-market goods, health episode valuation studies have tended to 1) value several ill health episodes or symptoms in the same survey, and 2) be vague in the survey instrument about the cause of the ill health, how it would be avoided or how the improvement would be paid for. The resulting values are then combined with exposure-response functions to generate economic estimates of health damages from pollution. This study tests whether episode valuation responses are sensitive to two of these design features. In a fivecountry study using split sample treatments, neither episode ordering nor mention of the cause of the ill health influenced stated willingness to pay to avoid specific ill health episodes.
- An economic reappraisal of the Melamchi water supply project – Kathmandu, NepalPublication . Whittington, Dale; Lauria, Donald T.; Prabhu, Vimalanand; Cook, JoeThis paper examines whether the benefits of the Melamchi water supply project in Nepal are likely to exceed its costs, assuming that high-quality municipal water services can be delivered to households and firms in the urbanized part of the Kathmandu Valley. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of the net present value and economic internal rate of return calculations to a wide range of assumptions and input parameters.We find that extreme assumptions are not required to generate large differences in economic feasibility; quite plausible differences in the values of some key parameters can lead to large differences in the economic attractiveness of the project. The results reveal that the three most important influences on net present value and economic internal rate of return are: (i) the discount rate and discounting procedure; (ii) the magnitude of monthly benefits for households connected to the new water system; and (iii) the annual growth rate in monthly benefits of connected households after the project comes on line. Our contribution lies in illustrating, with an actual case study in a developing country, the degree to which cost-benefit calculations of large infrastructure projects are influenced by key economic modeling assumptions and input parameters.