Portuguese Economic Journal, 2021, Volume 20, nº 2
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- Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capitalPublication . Ziesemer, Thomas; von Gässler, AnneWe add endogenous labour supply to exogenous population growth in an Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model with international capital movements. Under non-linearity from a decreasing marginal product of labour in education and a positive human capital externality in output production, a combination of an estimated debt-interest relation and a realistic calibration of the model shows the following. (i) The demographic dividends from a fall in the population growth rate increase welfare in the short run and reduce it in the long run. (ii) A higher (lower) growth rate of the dependency ratio leads to a higher (lower) optimal level of education and technical change. (iii) Lower past cumulated savings lead to a higher foreign-debt/GDP ratio, higher interest rates, more education time and technical change, and more consumption in the future rather than the present. (iv) A higher depreciation rate of human capital through ageing has a stronger impact on growth rates than all other variables that could be associated with ageing and a good mitigating policy is to spend more time on education.
- Qualifications, job mismatch, and workers with disabilitiesPublication . Park, KihongUsing panel estimation on longitudinal data from the Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled (PSED), this study examines the relationship between wages and job mismatch among disabled people in Korea. This paper uses a more detailed definition of job mismatch than utilized in earlier literature. This definition recognizes three forms of over-qualifications: over-educated only, over-skilled only, and a combination of both over-educated and over-skilled. Because earlier studies have only analyzed both overeducation and over-skilling together for workers with disabilities they were thus subject to potential omitted variable problems. This analysis finds that there is a strong negative association between wages and all three kinds of over-qualification. In particular, workers with disabilities face a severe wage penalty when they are both overeducated and over-skilled. However, a causal relationship between wages and overqualification is not evident after accounting for potential endogeneity problems and/or unobserved individual characteristics. This suggests that unobserved systematic differences play a substantial role in the determination of over-qualification effects on the wages of the disabled.
- Generational accounting in Portugal : an assessment of long-term fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequalityPublication . Pinheiro, JorgeThe social and economic developments in European countries have put pressure on their national budgets and threaten the sustainability of public policies. The traditional fiscal indicators, specifically, the deficit and the debt, which are still used today as guiding tools, have proved to be insufficient, due to their arbitrary nature and short-term focus. In this paper, we resort to an alternative fiscal indicator, known as ‘generational accounting’, which is able to incorporate the future changes in the demographic structure of the population, and their corresponding impact on public accounts. It is also able to evaluate how current fiscal policy affects, not only, current generations, but also future generations. We apply this methodology to assess the long-term fiscal situation of Portugal, and compare the results with those obtained in 1999. In this context, we also explore additional scenarios, as well as additional indicators, in order to provide some robustness to our findings. Our results show that, if the current fiscal policy is not significantly changed, future generations will face a much heavier fiscal burden than current generations.
- A new career in a new town. Job search methods and regional mobility of unemployed workersPublication . Morescalchi, AndreaLabour mobility is critical for adjusting imbalance between local labour markets. Yet, labour markets appear still very localized. Existing studies on job search report that the choice of search methods influences job outcomes, with social contacts accounting for a substantial fraction of job matches. Whether search methods are conducive to local or national jobs has not been examined yet. This paper establishes a link between job search and regional mobility, investigating the impact of search methods on unemployment exits within and across local labour markets. The effect of search methods is estimated by a Propensity Score Matching approach, using data from the British Household Panel Survey. Results show that only direct approach to employers enhances the job hazard with regional move. Conversely, social contacts and advertisements are found to increase the hazard to local employment, although the effect of social contacts wears off as the unemployment spell prolongs. No impact is found by Employment Agencies on either exit. These findings suggest that the widespread use of social contacts, while enhancing job matches in the local labour market, might contribute to restrict labour mobility. Therefore, they bear support to policies promoting diffusion and efficacy of alternative methods, particularly when the target is long-term unemployment. Results also point out the opportunity of reforms of the job search assistance and placement service offered by Employment Agencies, taking these limitations into account.