Portuguese Economic Journal, 2011, Volume 10, Nº 2
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- Fiscal regime shifts in PortugalPublication . Afonso, António; Claeys, Peter; Sousa, Ricardo M.We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978– 2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal framework prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process.
- Corruption and total factor productivity : level or growth effects?Publication . Salinas-Jiménez, Ma del Mar; Salinas-Jiménez, JavierThis paper adopts a productivity-based perspective in order to study how corruption conditions the efficiency levels of the economies and their TFP growth rate. It attempts to identify the channels through which corruption can influence productivity growth, whether by conditioning improvements in relative efficiency levels or by shifting the production frontier. The results point out that corruption negatively affects both the levels of efficiency at which the economies perform and the growth rate of TFP, suggesting that the negative impact of corruption on technological progress manifest through its influence on human capital.
- Does performance explain mutual fund flows in small markets? The case of PortugalPublication . Alves, Carlos; Mendes, VictorWe study the performance reaction of investors in a specific small market context. Our sample includes all Portuguese open-end equity funds that invested in stocks issued by Portuguese companies in the period De- cember 1993–June 2009. Instead of the convex flow–performance relationship usually documented for the US, we find an absence of reaction to past performance. We find no evidence to support the “smart money effect”, given that capital flows do not favour next period performance winners. We also document persistence of fund flows. Our results are consistent with the idea that large financial intermediaries have the capacity “to drive” their customers to funds with larger fees.
- Tax mimicking among local governments : some evidence from Spanish municipalitiesPublication . Delgado, Francisco J.; Mayor, MatíasThe aim of this paper is to study the spatial patterns in the Spanish local tax system. The three most relevant taxes are analyzed: the property tax, the motor vehicle tax and the building activities tax, which jointly represent 80% of the tax revenue at local level in Spain. Using spatial econometrics procedures, three alternative weight specifications to define competitors are explored: contiguity, distance and a combination of economic and geographical characteristics. After carrying out an exploratory spatial analysis, the results of the estimation of spatial lag and spatial error models confirm positive spatial- autocorrelation for the property tax and the building activities tax, with an order of magnitude between 0.3 and 0.5. On the contrary, the motor vehicle tax does not exhibit a significant spatial pattern.