Portuguese Economic Journal, 2002, Volume 1, Nº 1
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- Measuring the economic benefits of protecting the Parque Natural do Sudoeste Alentejano e Costa Vicentina from commercial tourism development : results from a contingent valuation surveyPublication . Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.This paper focus on a contingent valuation application as to measure the value that the Portuguese households are willing to pay for the recreation and biodiversity benefits provided by a Natural Park in Portugal. A national survey was designed and implemented. It gathered 1678 respondents and focus on three tourism development policy options for the Park. We refer to (1) the Wilderness- Area commercial tourism development scenario; (2) the Recreational-Area commercial tourism development scenario and, finally, a scenario version which is characterized by the tourism development of both Wilderness and Recreational Areas of the Natural Park. The results show that the Portuguese evaluate the Wilderness-Area and the Recreational-Area differently. In particular, the Portuguese show a higher willingness to pay for preserving the Wilderness-Area free from any commercial tourism development. However, we find no statistical difference between the willingness to pay for the Wilderness-Area and the willingness to pay for the Wilderness-Area jointly with the Recreational-Area. The last result can be interpreted as a consequence of the lack of credibility of the protection scenarios or, more interestingly, as pointing to the eventual presence of warm glow in the stated willingness to pay responses.
- Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countriesPublication . Evans, Charles L.; Santos, F. Teixeira dosAn implication of two-country international real business cycle mod- els is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exoge- nous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evi- dence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.
- The behaviour of seasonal unit root tests under neglected local driftsPublication . Rodrigues, Paulo M.M.This paper analyses the limit distributions of the seasonal unit root test procedures proposed by Dickey, Hasza and Fuller (1984) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990), when local trends at different frequencies are present in data generation processes, but ignored in the test regressions used. The findings presented explicitly show that neglected deterministic trends have negative effects on the distributions of the test statistics. Analytical observations and Monte Carlo simulations reveal that seasonal unit root test statistics become severely undersized as the values of standardized local trends increase. Hence, failure to consider local trends may often bear the undesirable effect of biasing decisions towards non-rejection of unit roots.
- The state of Portuguese research in economics : an analysis based on publications in international journalsPublication . Guimarães, PauloIn this paper I analyze the state of Portuguese research in economics based on publications in international journals for the period of 1986 to 2000. I find that scientific production is increasing but productivity remains low. I also provide a revealing characterization of the production habits of Portuguese re- searchers by answering the following questions: where do Portuguese researchers publish? who are the most active publishers? how often do they publish? how much do they collaborate? what is their background? Finally, I analyze the impact of that research based on citation counts.