Browsing by Author "Fontoura, Paula"
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- Directrizes para um programa de transformação económicaPublication . Fontoura, Paula; Roque, FátimaA transformação de uma economia de direcção central numa economia de mercado (economia em transição) tem-se revelado uma tarefa complexa. Existe o consenso de que a transformação destas economias, sujeitas a uma prolongada ausência de incentivos de mercado, tem que ser orientada, através de um programa com medidas devidamente articuladas e perspectivadas no tempo. Mas a teoria económica não dispõe de receitas "prontas", e a experiência do passado é, por enquanto, insuficiente. É possível recolher algumas lições em economias que de um certo grau de planificação transitaram para economias de mercado, como foi o caso da Alemanha depois da guerra ou da Espanha nos anos 70, e em casos de sucesso económico impulsionado pelo Estado em economias com um aparelho produtivo débil, encontrados no Leste Asiático. Na América Latina existem também experiências importantes em matéria de reformas pró-mercado ao longo da década de 80. Porém, o que está em causa, e aqui reside a U novidade" da questão, é a transformação de economias onde prevaleceu o antagonismo em relação aos mecanismos e incentivos de mercado - caso da maioria das economias africanas, da Europa do Leste, e ainda da China e outras economias asiáticas. No ponto I, formulamos algumas directrizes para a formulação de um programa de transformação económica de uma economia em transição. No ponto II, fazemos uma aplicação à economia angolana .
- Foreign Direct Investment spillovers : What can we learn from portuguese data?Publication . Fontoura, Paula; Junior, Renato G. Flôres; Santos, Rogério GuerraThis paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on the productivity performance of domestic firms in Portugal. The data comprise nine manufacturing sectors for the period 1992-95. Relatively to previous studies, model specification is improved by taking into consideration several aspects: the influence of the “technological gap” on spill-overs diffusion and the choice of its most appropriate interval; sectoral variation in the coefficients of the spill-overs effect; identification of constant, idiosyncratic sectoral factors by means of a fixed effects model; and the search for inter-sectoral positive spillover effects. The relationship between domestic firms productivity and the foreign presence does take place in a positive way, only if a proper technology differential between the foreign and domestic producers exists and the sectoral characteristics are favourable. In broad terms, spillovers diffusion is associated to modern industries in which the foreign owned establishments have a clear, but not too sharp, edge on the domestic ones. Besides, other specific sectoral influences can be pertinent; agglomerative location factors being one example.
- Foreign direct investment spillovers in Portugal : additional lessons from a country studyPublication . Júnior, Renato G. Flôres; Fontoura, Paula; Santos, Rogério GuerraThis paper investigates the impact of FDI on the productivity of Portuguese manufacturing sectors. Model specification is improved by considering the choice of the most appropriate interval of the technological gap for spillovers diffusion. We also allow for sectoral variation in the coefficients of the spillover effect; idiosyncratic sectoral factors are identified by means of a fixed effects model. Inter-sectoral positive spillover effects are examined. Significant spillovers require a proper technological differential between foreign and domestic producers and favourable sectoral characteristics. They may occur in modern industries in which the foreign firms have a clear, but not too sharp, edge on the domestic ones. Agglomeration effects are also one pertinent specific influence.
- Portuguese export performance in the European Market : an evaluation for the 2000sPublication . Fontoura, Paula; Serôdio, PedroThis paper focuses the performance of Portuguese merchandise exports in this period, more precisely from 1999 were channelled to this group of countries in the beginning of the period under scrutiny, the analysis of the performance of those exports to this particular market is particularly relevant. The study is based on a descriptive analysis of the productive structure of merchandise exports to the EU15 and a Constant Market Share (CMS) analysis, which allows to disentangle the export growth into several components, analytically interpretable, including one usually related to competitiveness. The CMS used is the version of Leamer and Stern (1970), which allows to breakdown the variation of exports into several components including the contribution of the specialization pattern and the geographical orientation of trade on the aggregate behaviour of exports, and a residual term usually related to external competitiveness. This version, in turn, is adapted to include the correction proposed by Milana (1988).
- Protection, foreign trade and economic growth in Portugal 1840s-1980Publication . Fontoura, Paula; Valério, NunoThis paper is a summary of some recent contributions to the study of Portuguese international economic relations. It aims to present a brief analysis of the relation between protection, foreign trade and economic growth from the mid-nineteenth century to the 1980s. The period studied corresponds to the period for which official data about Portuguese foreign trade have been published. In the first part, we analyse the period before the Second World War. During this period the Portuguese economy remained rather closed to foreign trade and its growth was intermittent. The second part focuses on the post-Second World War years. These years witnessed a quantitative increase in Portuguese foreign economic relations and an acceleration of Portuguese economic growth, in spite of some predominance of the import substitution strategy over the export-led strategy. In both periods, protection had profound consequences for the pattern of specialization of the Portuguese economy, delaying modernization and causing significant inefficiencies.
- Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potentialPublication . Proença, Isabel; Fontoura, Paula; Martínez-Galán, EnriqueThis paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.
- What determines the export performance? : A comparative analysis of China and India in the European UnionPublication . Coutinho, Ana Luísa; Fontoura, Paula; AECRThis paper aims to aims to assess the competitiveness of exports of manufactured goods from China and India to the European Union in the 2000s. The empirical analysis is based on two methodologies: (i) a Constant Market Share analysis which allows to decompose the export growth to the European market into several components including an effect usually related to competitiveness, and (ii) an analysis based on the combination of revealed comparative advantage indexes with a geographic orientation of trade. The latter allows to identify products that appear to have potential for China and India to expand their exports.