Browsing by Author "Faria de Deus, Raquel"
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- 100 Years of land-use and land-cover data: what has been the effect of spatial planning in coastal land-use and land-cover change?Publication . Faria de Deus, Raquel; Tenedório, José António; Pumain, Denise; Rocha, Jorge; Pereira, MargaridaThe Sustainable Development Goals require us to rethink spatial planning policies’ effectiveness. This article proposes a reproducible method for assessing the effect of past planning practices and simulating future land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes with a Cellular Automata model. The originality of our approach is to systematically compare observed changes in LULC with the planning rules in force over almost a century of evolution. A quasi-exhaustive database was constructed at a very fine spatial resolution for the municipality of Portimão (Southern Portugal), including the location and changes of LULC categories, and the planning rules of the corresponding time period on nine dates between 1947 and 2018. The quantified measurement of the actual effect of planning rules enables us to identify other determinants of the evolution. Findings reveal that the policies established by the local government—which aimed to foster well-planned comprehensive urban areas—were not as effective as intended. The quantified discrepancies between planning recommendations and observed evolution help to simulate which LULC scenarios could be designed to reach the expected result in future planning policies. Our assessment method could be applied in other urban and tourist regions where land artificialization exerts strong pressure on the environment.
- Modelling land-use and land-cover changes: a hybrid approach to a coastal areaPublication . Faria de Deus, Raquel; Tenedório, José A.; Rocha, JorgeIn this chapter, a hybrid approach integrating cellular automata (CA), fuzzy logic, logistic regression, and Markov chains for modelling and prediction of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change at the local scale, using geographic information with fine spatial resolution is presented. A spatial logistic regression model was applied to determine the transition rules that were used by a conventional CA model. The overall dimension of LULC change was estimated using a Markov chain model. The proposed CA-based model (termed CAMLucc) in combination with physical variables and land-use planning data was applied to simulate LULC change in Portimão, Portugal between 1947 and 2010 and to predict its future spatial patterns for 2020 and 2025. The main results of this research show that Portimão has been facing massive growth in artificial surfaces, particularly near the main urban settlements and along the coastal area, and reveal an early and intensive urban sprawl over time.