Portugal, Joana BoavidaSantos, Catarina Frazão da Fonseca dos, 1983-Julien, Elisabeth2024-12-162024-12-1620242024http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/96388Tese de mestrado, Ciências do Mar , 2024, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de CiênciasClimate-driven environmental changes in oceans are driving significant shifts in marine ecosystem distribution, composition and productivity, with far-reaching consequences for the services they support. Addressing and integrating climate effects in marine spatial planning (MSP) is needed to support ecosystem-based, forward-looking management processes. Modelling the impact of climate change to assess future scenarios constitutes an important first step in planning for climate-related vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities. This study uses species distribution modelling (SDM) to project the effects of climate change on the distribution of habitat suitability (HS) for marine biota on which human uses and activities of the Portuguese MSP rely. Fisheries, aquaculture, conservation and tourism were identified as sectors of interest in this context. Models were fitted using an ensemble of eleven different statistical techniques for a total of seventy-four marine species associated to the chosen Portuguese MSP. The ensembles were run for present, mid-century and end-century scenarios, under representative climate scenarios SSP245 and SSP585. Results project loss of HS across all species modelled by mid and end-of-century scenarios, with significant variability in magnitude and direction across groups. Analyses of projected HS across Portuguese maritime space (exclusive economic zone and extended continental platform) constitute a step towards planning effective, evidence-based climate-smart and ecosystem-based MSP opportunities in the Portuguese context. We highlight key threats, considerations to hold for the relevant sectors and spatial opportunities to support socioeconomic and ecological resilience, informing where to invest more research. Our results and methodologies are available open source (see github.com/elisabethjulien/SDM_for_MSP and https://figshare.com/projects/Projecting_biodiversity_change_to_support_climate-smart_ocean_planning_in_Portugal/219448) for further data exploration. This study contributes to the emerging body of demonstration of the necessity of climate-smart MSP, and how projecting future scenarios can prove an essential tool in effective planning to safeguard ecological functions, contributing towards social, political and environmental frameworks.engordenamento do espaço marinhoalterações climáticasmodelação de distribuição de espéciesPortugalTeses de mestrado - 2024master thesis203880552