Barros, Carlos PestanaLuis A., Gil-Alana2022-05-122022-05-122012Barros, Carlos Pestana e Luis A. Gil-Alana. 2012. “Inflation forecasting in Angola : a fractional approach” . Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. CEsA – Documentos de Trabalho nº 103/ 2012 .http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/24289This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August, 1996. Using the second sub-sample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.engInflationLong MemoryAngolaworking paper