Afonso, AntónioCarvalho, Rui Miguel da Costa2013-12-022013-12-022013Carvalho, Rui Miguel da Costa. 2013. "Revenue forecast errors in the European Union". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6199Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraThe recent years had brought significant uncertainty to macroeconomic forecasts made not only by specialized international institutions but also by central governments. This dissertation assesses the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. A particular important result obtained was that tax rate changes do affect revenue errors and that different tax changes affect differently revenue errors. Also, GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate rate changes can be associated to overly optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, 10-year bond yields, inflation errors and VAT changes are associated with a more prudent behaviour.engmacro forecastsrevenue forecast errorsEUmaster thesis