Rosalino, Luís Miguel do Carmo, 1971-Clavero Pineda , MiguelBarrocal, Afonso Miguel Nunes2025-03-1920252024http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/99460Tese de mestrado, Biologia da Conservação, 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de CiênciasThe study of species distributions is essential for the effective design and execution of conservation actions. However, anthropogenic activity has drastically altered the range of most species. Therefore, their use in conservation is limited as many species currently present a fraction of their indigenous distribution. The historical and paleontological records are a window into a time when species distributions had not yet been tainted by human activity. In this work, a compilation of historical and fossil occurrences of lynxes in the Iberian Peninsula is presented. This database is used to model the distribution of the Eurasian lynx, one of two lynx species that historically occur in Iberia, to create a distribution baseline for the species. Furthermore, this work presents a multi-modelling framework that aims to quantify the uncertainty of its predictions, thus increasing their reliability. It is hypothesized that this lynx species will have a greater probability of occurrence in the Temperate Broadleaf & Mixed Forests biome. This hypothesis is explicitly tested by a binomial GLM that shows a significant positive association between lynx presence and this biome. The availability of prey is also hypothesized to increase the probability of occurrence of this species. Both hypotheses are supported by the variable importance in the distribution models. All species distribution modelling approaches (GLM, GAM, and MaxEnt) used show that the Eurasian lynx was found in the north and northwest of the Iberian Peninsula during the 19th century. When compared with previous European-wide studies, this work’s best performing modelling approach (GAM) increased in 436 times the estimated suitable area for the Eurasian lynx in the Iberian Peninsula. This work establishes the first distribution baseline of the species at the Iberian level, and once again highlights the importance of historical and paleontological data for designing quantitative targets for conservation strategies.engcarnívorosecologia históricamodelação da distribuição de espéciespaleobiologia da conservaçãoanálise de incertezaTeses de mestrado - 2025master thesis