Oliveira, SandraRocha, JorgeCapinha, CésarSousa, Carla2021-10-282021-10-282021http://hdl.handle.net/10451/50043The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a competent vector of numerous diseases, including the dengue and Zika viruses, and public health concerns have encouraged extensive research to model the environmental suitability to the mosquito. We evaluated the level of consensus between published predictions for the European continent and for a set of 65 major cities. We identified consensus hotspots of high and low suitability and the potential variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions. A strong inter-model agreement was found regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of cities are predicted as suitable to the establishment of the mosquito in the future, including in northern Europe, and no decrease in suitability is expected. These results show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in areas where the risk of establishment of Ae. albopictus is currently low.engAedes albopictusEuropeConsensus hotspotsSuitabilityconference object