Recent trends in fire regimes and associated territorial features in a fire-prone Mediterranean region

Abstract

Fire regimes in Mediterranean countries have been shifting in recent decades, including changes in wildfire size and frequency. We sought to describe changes in fire regimes across two periods (1975–1995 and 1996–2018) in a fire-prone region of central Portugal, explore the relationships between these regimes and territorial features, and check whether these associations persisted across periods. Two independent indicators of fire regimes were determined at parish level: fire incidence and burn concentration. Most parishes presented higher values of both indicators in the second period. Higher values of fire incidence were associated with lower population densities, lower proportions of farmland areas and higher proportions of natural vegetation. Higher levels of burn concentration were associated with smaller areas of farmland and natural vegetation. These associations differed across periods, reflecting contrasting climatic and socio-economic contexts. Keeping 40% of a parish territory covered by farmland was effective to buffer the increased wildfire risks associated with different management and climate contexts. The effectiveness of higher population densities in keeping fire incidence low decreased in the last decades. The results can improve the knowledge on the temporal evolution of fire regimes and their conditioning factors, providing contributions for spatial planning and forest/wildfire management policies.