Dueling effects: how integration policies and economic downturns affect the (uncertain) host population’s behavioral intentions toward immigrants

Abstract

People perceive immigration as a source of uncertainty in the host society, making them more susceptible to the most extreme ideological messages that threaten a peaceful relationship between immigrants and the host population. One such message is the idea that immigrants threaten ingroup prerogatives. This, in turn, is related to prosocial and contesting behavioral intentions (negatively and positively, respectively). Implementing inclusive integration policies can create conditions for the institutionalization of norms that promote tolerance and mitigate the negative effects of threat, which can be particularly relevant when the population perceives an economic decline. We address this phenomenon by proposing an analytic model that predicts that the perceived state of the economy and inclusive policies moderate the impact of uncertainty on realistic threat and prosocial and contesting behavioral intentions toward immigrants. We used a 2 (self-uncertainty about immigration: high vs. low)× 2 (perception of economic conditions: decline vs. stability) × 2 (integration policies: very inclusive vs. not very inclusive) between-participants design (N = 579). Results indicated that realistic threat mediated the influence of uncertainty on behavioral intentions. Importantly, the results also confirmed the impact of an economic decline on participants’ realistic threat in an uncertain immigration situation and showed that integration policy influences the relationship between realistic threat and prosocial and contestation behavioral intentions. We discuss the implications of these findings for the literature on the role of uncertainty and legitimacy in anti-immigrant attitudes.