Demography, labour force and migration : trends, prospects and policy implications in Portugal

Abstract

Across most European societies, demographic ageing began to make itself manifest a few decades ago and is only now beginning to show its true dimension. It is the necessary consequence of two inter-related processes, whose origins can themselves be traced back far into the past. One is unquestionably positive: successive victories in the battle against death that have made it possible to increase average life expectancy ever further. The other is far more controversial, though also a “natural” consequence of socioeconomic development: a sharp, sudden decrease in fertility, or the average number of children that people eventually bear. Together, these two processes shift the age structure of the societies experiencing them and bring about a series of potentially serious social and economic consequences – from potential labour shortages to changes in the structure of demands with which public budgets are faced, to difficulties in ensuring the sustainability of public welfare systems.