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Abstract(s)
O negócio consiste na criação de um empreendimento turístico numa península junto ao Rio
Zêzere, na zona de Ferreira do Zêzere. Neste local serão construídas 10 habitações, um restaurante, uma
lavandaria, uma mercearia/receção, uma horta, um pomar, uma pequena quinta e a zona do Staff. Também vai haver a oportunidade de acampar.
Neste empreendimento foram criadas algumas atividades com o objetivo de aliar as pessoas ao
minimalismo e à natureza, consciencializando-as para a importância da biodiversidade e a proteção do
meio ambiente.
O investimento inicial será no valor de 1 583 310,89 €, dos quais 11% serão financiados por
Capital Próprio e os restantes 89% por Capital Alheio, através de um empréstimo bancário com uma
taxa de juro de 7% e uma maturidade de 20 anos.
De forma a analisar a viabilidade económica e financeira deste investimento, foram gerados
quatro cenários diferentes.
• Cenário moderado – considerou-se um valor de vendas o mais real possível, tendo por base a
taxa de ocupação do setor no ano de 2022 e 2023;
• Cenário otimista – considerou-se as taxas de ocupação de modo a simular uma procura intensa
no nosso negócio e uma diminuição dos gastos incorridos;
• Cenário pessimista – simulou-se uma taxa de ocupação muito baixa, refletindo uma procura
débil e um aumento dos gastos;
• Cenário de expansão – verificou-se se seria possível fazer uma expansão do empreendimento
tendo como base o cenário moderado. Para avaliar esta expansão foram feitas duas abordagens:
uma delas foi através do VAL e da TIR e a outra consistiu em determinar o valor da opção de
expansão do projeto, através do modelo Black-Scholes. Ambas as abordagens concluíram que a
expansão seria uma mais-valia para o empreendimento.
Tanto no cenário realista como no otimista concluiu-se que este projeto será viável. Por outro
lado, no cenário pessimista o projeto não foi considerado viável.
The business consists of creating a tourist resort on a peninsula next to the River Zêzere, in the Ferreira do Zêzere area. On this site will be built 10 houses, a restaurant, a launderette, a grocery store/reception, a vegetable garden, an orchard, a small farm and a staff area. There will also be the opportunity to go camping. This development has created a few activities with the aim of bringing people together with minimalism and nature, making them aware of the importance of biodiversity and protecting the environment. The initial investment will be €1,583,310.89, of which 11 percent will be financed by equity and the remaining 89 percent by borrowed capital, through a bank loan with an interest rate of 7 percent and a maturity of 20 years. In order to analyse the economic and financial viability of this investment, four different scenarios were generated. • Moderate scenario - a sales figure as real as possible was considered, based on the occupancy rate in the sector in 2022 and 2023. • Optimistic scenario - occupancy rates were considered to simulate intense demand for our business and a reduction in the costs incurred. • Pessimistic scenario - a very low occupancy rate was simulated, reflecting weak demand and an increase in spending. • Expansion scenario - to see if it would be possible to expand the enterprise based on the moderate scenario. Two approaches were used to evaluate this expansion: one was through the NPV and IRR, and the other was to determine the value of the project's expansion option using the Black-Scholes model. Both approaches concluded that the expansion would add value to the enterprise. In both the realistic and optimistic scenarios, it was concluded that the project would be viable. On the other hand, in the pessimistic scenario, the project was not considered viable.
The business consists of creating a tourist resort on a peninsula next to the River Zêzere, in the Ferreira do Zêzere area. On this site will be built 10 houses, a restaurant, a launderette, a grocery store/reception, a vegetable garden, an orchard, a small farm and a staff area. There will also be the opportunity to go camping. This development has created a few activities with the aim of bringing people together with minimalism and nature, making them aware of the importance of biodiversity and protecting the environment. The initial investment will be €1,583,310.89, of which 11 percent will be financed by equity and the remaining 89 percent by borrowed capital, through a bank loan with an interest rate of 7 percent and a maturity of 20 years. In order to analyse the economic and financial viability of this investment, four different scenarios were generated. • Moderate scenario - a sales figure as real as possible was considered, based on the occupancy rate in the sector in 2022 and 2023. • Optimistic scenario - occupancy rates were considered to simulate intense demand for our business and a reduction in the costs incurred. • Pessimistic scenario - a very low occupancy rate was simulated, reflecting weak demand and an increase in spending. • Expansion scenario - to see if it would be possible to expand the enterprise based on the moderate scenario. Two approaches were used to evaluate this expansion: one was through the NPV and IRR, and the other was to determine the value of the project's expansion option using the Black-Scholes model. Both approaches concluded that the expansion would add value to the enterprise. In both the realistic and optimistic scenarios, it was concluded that the project would be viable. On the other hand, in the pessimistic scenario, the project was not considered viable.
Description
Trabalho de projeto de mestrado, Matemática Aplicada à Economia e Gestão, 2023, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Keywords
Plano de investimento Plano de exploração Plano de financiamento Valor Atual Líquido Taxa Interna de Rentabilidade Trabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2024