Reconstruction of Regional and National Population using Intermittent Census - Type Data: The case of Portugal 1527-1864

Abstract

Modern tests of the Mathusian model and its variations have relied almost exclusively on the Wrigley-Schofield demographic data for England, the only available source of annual national data on population stocks for a premodern economy. In this paper, we provide evidence for another such economy, early modern and nineteenth century Portugal. For this, we use a new sample of parish-level annual statistics up to the first modern census of 1864. All six major regions of the country are considered. We combine this information with intermittent census-type data on population stocks to arrive at annual regional and national population stock estimates for this period. Hence we offer a new methodological contribution for the construction of population stocks over the very long run. This methodology can be used in situations in which there is limited availability of local annual gross flows but some intermittent information about stocks is obtainable.