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Modelação espacial da invasão pelo peixe-gato-europeu (Silurus glanis) : os casos de estudo da Península Ibérica e da Europa
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Resumo(s)
As espécies não nativas invasoras são das principais causas de declínio da biodiversidade nos
ecossistemas de água doce. Um exemplo de uma espécie não nativa invasora é o peixe-gato-europeu
(Silurus glanis), que tem grandes impactos principalmente por predação sobre as espécies nativas, sendo
introduzido principalmente devido à pesca desportiva e à aquicultura em vários países da Europa. Na
Península Ibérica, ocorre nas bacias dos rios Ebro, Tejo, Douro, Guadalquivir, Ter e Llobregat. Devido
aos seus impactos, é importante prever os locais com maior adequabilidade para a espécie no futuro.
Neste trabalho, utilizou-se os métodos de máxima entropia (MaxEnt), análise espacial multicritério e
regressão geográfica ponderada (GWR), e foram utilizadas como variáveis explicativas tanto variáveis
bioclimáticas, como topográficas e antrópicas. As variáveis com maior contribuição para explicar a
adequabilidade na Europa foram a temperatura máxima do mês mais quente e a mínima do mês mais
frio, enquanto para a Península Ibérica e para as bacias dos rios Ebro e Tejo foi a ordem dos rios;
contrariamente ao esperado, as variáveis antrópicas não tiveram importância, provavelmente devido à
introdução intensiva mesmo em locais menos perturbados, com vista à pesca desportiva. Assim, os
resultados indicam que praticamente toda a Europa apresenta condições adequadas ao estabelecimento
da espécie. Na Península Ibérica, todas as bacias são passíveis de serem invadidas, com destaque para
os rios principais, seguidos pelos afluentes de maior dimensão. No entanto, a região norte de Portugal,
nordeste de Espanha e os rios que drenam da cordilheira Cantábrica para norte apresentam menor
adequabilidade. Por último, as projeções para as bacias dos rios Ebro e Tejo indicam que os rios
principais e os afluentes de maior dimensão são aqueles com maior aptidão. Esta informação pode ser
relevante para a conservação e monitorização dos ecossistemas europeus, pois permite identificar as
áreas mais vulneráveis à invasão.
Invasive non-native species are among the main causes of biodiversity decline in freshwater ecosystems. An example of an invasive non-native species is the European catfish (Silurus glanis), which has significant impacts mainly due to predation on native species, and was introduced mainly for sport fishing and aquaculture in several European countries. In the Iberian Peninsula, it occurs in the basins of the Ebro, Tagus, Douro, Guadalquivir, Ter, and Llobregat rivers. Due to its impacts, it is important to predict the areas with the highest suitability for the species in the future. In this work, the methods of maximum entropy (MaxEnt), multi-criteria spatial analysis, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were used, and bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables were employed as explanatory variables. The variables with the highest contribution to explaining suitability in Europe were the maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month, while for the Iberian Peninsula and the basins of the Ebro and Tagus rivers, it was the river order. Contrary to expectations, anthropogenic variables had no importance, probably due to the intensive introduction even in less disturbed areas for sport fishing. Thus, the results indicate that almost all of Europe presents suitable conditions for the establishment of the species. In the Iberian Peninsula, all basins are likely to be invaded, with the main rivers, followed by the larger tributaries, standing out. However, northern Portugal, northeastern Spain, and the rivers that drain the Cantabrian Mountains to due north present lower suitability. Lastly, the projections for the Ebro and Tagus river basins indicate that the main rivers and the larger tributaries are those with the highest suitability. This information may be relevant for the conservation and monitoring of European ecosystems, as it allows the identification of the areas most vulnerable to invasion.
Invasive non-native species are among the main causes of biodiversity decline in freshwater ecosystems. An example of an invasive non-native species is the European catfish (Silurus glanis), which has significant impacts mainly due to predation on native species, and was introduced mainly for sport fishing and aquaculture in several European countries. In the Iberian Peninsula, it occurs in the basins of the Ebro, Tagus, Douro, Guadalquivir, Ter, and Llobregat rivers. Due to its impacts, it is important to predict the areas with the highest suitability for the species in the future. In this work, the methods of maximum entropy (MaxEnt), multi-criteria spatial analysis, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were used, and bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables were employed as explanatory variables. The variables with the highest contribution to explaining suitability in Europe were the maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month, while for the Iberian Peninsula and the basins of the Ebro and Tagus rivers, it was the river order. Contrary to expectations, anthropogenic variables had no importance, probably due to the intensive introduction even in less disturbed areas for sport fishing. Thus, the results indicate that almost all of Europe presents suitable conditions for the establishment of the species. In the Iberian Peninsula, all basins are likely to be invaded, with the main rivers, followed by the larger tributaries, standing out. However, northern Portugal, northeastern Spain, and the rivers that drain the Cantabrian Mountains to due north present lower suitability. Lastly, the projections for the Ebro and Tagus river basins indicate that the main rivers and the larger tributaries are those with the highest suitability. This information may be relevant for the conservation and monitoring of European ecosystems, as it allows the identification of the areas most vulnerable to invasion.
Descrição
Tese de Mestrado, Biologia da Conservação, 2024, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Palavras-chave
Modelo de distribuição de espécies MaxEnt SIG Espécies não nativas invasoras Rede hidrográfica Teses de mestrado - 2024