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Projecting Changes in Marine Biota Distribution to Support Climate-Resilient Marine Spatial Plans in Portugal
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Resumo(s)
Climate-driven environmental changes in oceans are driving significant shifts in marine ecosystem distribution, composition and productivity, with far-reaching consequences for the services they
support. Addressing and integrating climate effects in marine spatial planning (MSP) is needed to support ecosystem-based, forward-looking management processes. Modelling the impact of climate change
to assess future scenarios constitutes an important first step in planning for climate-related vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities.
This study uses species distribution modelling (SDM) to project the effects of climate change
on the distribution of habitat suitability (HS) for marine biota on which human uses and activities of the
Portuguese MSP rely. Fisheries, aquaculture, conservation and tourism were identified as sectors of
interest in this context. Models were fitted using an ensemble of eleven different statistical techniques
for a total of seventy-four marine species associated to the chosen Portuguese MSP. The ensembles were
run for present, mid-century and end-century scenarios, under representative climate scenarios SSP245
and SSP585.
Results project loss of HS across all species modelled by mid and end-of-century scenarios,
with significant variability in magnitude and direction across groups. Analyses of projected HS across
Portuguese maritime space (exclusive economic zone and extended continental platform) constitute a
step towards planning effective, evidence-based climate-smart and ecosystem-based MSP opportunities
in the Portuguese context. We highlight key threats, considerations to hold for the relevant sectors and
spatial opportunities to support socioeconomic and ecological resilience, informing where to invest more
research. Our results and methodologies are available open source (see github.com/elisabethjulien/SDM_for_MSP and https://figshare.com/projects/Projecting_biodiversity_change_to_support_climate-smart_ocean_planning_in_Portugal/219448) for further data exploration.
This study contributes to the emerging body of demonstration of the necessity of climate-smart
MSP, and how projecting future scenarios can prove an essential tool in effective planning to safeguard
ecological functions, contributing towards social, political and environmental frameworks.
Descrição
Tese de mestrado, Ciências do Mar , 2024, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Palavras-chave
ordenamento do espaço marinho alterações climáticas modelação de distribuição de espécies Portugal Teses de mestrado - 2024