Multi-Parametric Risk Assessment of the Sea Level Rise: the case study of Ria Formosa (Algarve)

Mourão, Sílvia Alexandra da Silva

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/95572

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Authors

Mourão, Sílvia Alexandra da Silva

Advisor(s)

Antunes, Carlos Manuel Correia, 1965-

Catita, Cristina Maria Sousa, 1971-

Abstract(s)

The accelerating rise in sea levels due to global warming poses significant threats, particularly to lowlying coastal regions. Effective management of these risks requires a comprehensive understanding of how sea level rise impacts the affected areas. Traditional coastal risk assessments evolved to incorporate a broader range of factors, yet a gap remains in methodologies that simultaneously consider physical, socioeconomic, and ecological vulnerabilities. This dissertation presents a new methodology for comprehensive coastal risk assessment, integrating physical and socioeconomic factors alongside environmental considerations. The Ria Formosa in Algarve, a natural reserve lagoon protected by a barrier island system, serves as the case study. The reserve is under urban pressure from human occupation on the barrier islands and large inland cities such as Faro and Olhão, combining a multitude of factors into one region. The methodology involves determining the hazard using the IPCC RCP 8.5 sea level rise model and assessing physical vulnerability through regional erosion and accretion rates, factoring in the exacerbation due to rise of the mean sea-level. Socioeconomic vulnerability is evaluated based on population density, infrastructure presence, and potential damage costs, among other indicators. Environmental vulnerability is assessed through the lens of ecosystem services, based on results derived from expert surveys. Data from these assessments are normalised and integrated, culminating in a multi-parametric risk map. The results underscore that the risk to the ecosystem is significantly higher than the risk levels derived solely from socioeconomic and physical factors. This aligns with expected outcomes and demonstrates the flexibility and adaptability of this methodology for further case studies. The findings advocate for a broader study into the valuation of ecosystems to standardise practices at a national level, emphasising the critical need to incorporate ecological considerations into coastal risk assessments to ensure comprehensive risk management in the face of accelerating sea level rise.