Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries

Afonso, António; Nickel, Christiane; Rother, Philipp

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2128

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Authors

Afonso, António

Nickel, Christiane

Rother, Philipp

Abstract(s)

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period 1991-2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful.

Keywords

fiscal policy fiscal episodes Central and Eastern Europe Logit models

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2128

Citation

Afonso, António, Christiane Nickel e Philipp Rother. 2005. "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries". European Central Bank working paper series nº 473-2005