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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/
RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the
USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant
deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the
conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war.
The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates,
causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings
highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management,
access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling.
Description
Keywords
Exchange rate Russia-Ukraine conflict Causal inference Depreciation Counterfactual
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Jia,H., Yun, H., Khan, K. (2025). "Does the Russia-Ukraine war cause exchange rate depreciation? Evidence from the rouble exchange rate". Portuguese Economic Journal, 24(2):225-239