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Predicting burnt areas during the summer season in Portugal by combining wildfire susceptibility and spring meteorological conditions

2021Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorBergonse, Rafaello
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Ana
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Sílvia
dc.contributor.authorDaCamara, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-29T10:58:31Z
dc.date.available2021-04-29T10:58:31Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractWildfire susceptibility maps are a well-known tool for optimizing available means to plan for prevention, early detection, and wildfire suppression in Portugal, especially regarding the critical fire season (1 July 30 September). These susceptibility maps typically disregard seasonal weather conditions on each given year, being based on predisposing variables that remain constant on the long-term, such as elevation. We employ logistic regression for combining wildfire susceptibility with a meteorological index representing spring conditions (the Seasonal Severity Rating), with the purpose of predicting, for any given year and ahead of the critical fire season, which areas will burn. Results show that the combination of the index with wildfire susceptibility slightly increases the capability to predict which areas will burn, when compared with susceptibility alone. Spring meteorological context was found better suited for predicting if the following summer wildfire season will be more severe, rather than predicting where wildfires will effectively occur. The model can be updated yearly after the critical wildfire season and can be applied to optimize the allocation of human and material resources regarding the prevention, early detection and suppression activities, required to reduce the severity of wildfires in the country.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBergonse, R., Oliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., Nunes, S., Camara, C., & Zêzere, J. L. (2021). Predicting burnt areas during the summer season in Portugal by combining wildfire susceptibility and spring meteorological conditions. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 12(1), 1039-1057. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1909664pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/19475705.2021.1909664pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1947-5705
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/47598
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherTaylor & Francispt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2021.1909664pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectBurnt area modelpt_PT
dc.subjectLogistic regressionpt_PT
dc.subjectMeteorological wildfire indexpt_PT
dc.subjectSeasonal severity ratingpt_PT
dc.subjectWildfire susceptibilitypt_PT
dc.titlePredicting burnt areas during the summer season in Portugal by combining wildfire susceptibility and spring meteorological conditionspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage1057pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue1pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1039pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleGeomatics, Natural Hazards and Riskpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume12pt_PT
person.familyNameBergonse
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNamedo Nascimento Gonçalves
person.familyNameZêzere
person.givenNameRafaello
person.givenNameSandra
person.givenNameAna Cristina
person.givenNameJosé Luís
person.identifierH-9956-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id8A16-4976-FD63
person.identifier.ciencia-id391A-DCE3-00CD
person.identifier.ciencia-id511D-EE6B-47E3
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6709-0547
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6253-4353
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8857-2120
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3953-673X
person.identifier.ridAAK-5051-2020
person.identifier.scopus-author-id17435272900
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6507109389
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd30eb4c5-8ef1-426b-8e80-baa646b30f0e

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