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Stochastic prediction of drought class transitions
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This paper aims at the stochastic characterization of droughts applying Markov
chains modeling to drought class transitions derived from SPI time series. Several sites in
Southern Portugal having updated data on precipitation available were considered. The
drought class probabilities, the expected residence time in each class of severity, the
expected time for the transition between drought classes and the drought severity class
predictions 1, 2, or 3 months ahead have been obtained. Those predictions are then
compared with observed drought classes for the recent drought periods of 2003–2006. In
addition, the estimation of the cumulated precipitation deficits, amount of monthly
precipitation needed to decrease drought severity, and foreseen SPI values depending on
different precipitation scenarios are also presented as complementing the prediction of
drought class transitions.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Markov chains standardized precipitation index stochastic modeling rainfall deficits Portugal
Contexto Educativo
Citação
"Water Resouce Management". ISSN 0920-4741. 22 (2008) 1277-1296