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Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

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dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, R.A.C.
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sérgio
dc.contributor.authorReis, Eusébio
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-18T11:08:48Z
dc.date.available2019-02-18T11:08:48Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km2) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m2) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationZêzere, J. L., Garcia, R. A. C., Oliveira, S. C., & Reis, E. (2008). Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). Geomorphology, 94(3–4), 467–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.10.040.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.10.040pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0169-555X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/37033
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X07002796?via%3Dihubpt_PT
dc.subjectLandslidespt_PT
dc.subjectHazard assessmentpt_PT
dc.subjectVulnerabilitypt_PT
dc.subjectRisk analysispt_PT
dc.subjectDirect costspt_PT
dc.subjectLisbon (Portugal)pt_PT
dc.titleProbabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage495pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue3-4pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage467pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleGeomorphologypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume94pt_PT
person.familyNameZêzere
person.familyNameGarcia
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNameReis
person.givenNameJosé Luís
person.givenNameR.A.C.
person.givenNameSérgio
person.givenNameEusébio
person.identifierH-9956-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id511D-EE6B-47E3
person.identifier.ciencia-idBC12-77B6-7801
person.identifier.ciencia-id1B10-8CE2-1F13
person.identifier.ciencia-id8F1E-24ED-D262
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3953-673X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1036-6271
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0883-8564
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8367-1835
person.identifier.ridJ-8719-2013
person.identifier.ridM-8412-2016
person.identifier.ridM-8740-2016
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6507109389
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55454646500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id24779631800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7103146725
rcaap.rightsclosedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationa49d5ad5-533a-4973-b8c6-a4f201b1cf62
relation.isAuthorOfPublication3971b2ff-3bd6-4a99-8ea4-857883946ceb
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb3c06bf6-1a8f-4071-b074-0feb3890c624
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryeb79e9a4-db50-4237-8cfa-5ef7a22b243a

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