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Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations

2016Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorBenali, Akli Ait
dc.contributor.authorErvilha, Ana R.
dc.contributor.authorSá, Ana C.L.
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Paulo M.
dc.contributor.authorPinto, Renata
dc.contributor.authorTrigo, Ricardo M.
dc.contributor.authorCardoso Pereira, José Miguel
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-02T10:32:33Z
dc.date.available2019-04-02T10:32:33Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractPredicting wildfire spread is a challenging task fraught with uncertainties. ‘Perfect’ predictions are unfeasible since uncertainties will always be present. Improving fire spread predictions is important to reduce its negative environmental impacts. Here, we propose to understand, characterize, and quantify the impact of uncertainty in the accuracy of fire spread predictions for very large wildfires. We frame this work from the perspective of the major problems commonly faced by fire model users, namely the necessity of accounting for uncertainty in input data to produce reliable and useful fire spread predictions. Uncertainty in input variables was propagated throughout the modeling framework and its impact was evaluated by estimating the spatial discrepancy between simulated and satellite-observed fire progression data, for eight very large wildfires in Portugal. Results showed that uncertainties in wind speed and direction, fuel model assignment and typology, location and timing of ignitions, had a major impact on prediction accuracy.We argue that uncertainties in these variables should be integrated in future fire spread simulation approaches, and provide the necessary data for any firemodel user to do sopt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationScience of the Total Environment 569–570 (2016) 73–85pt_PT
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.112pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/17680
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionwww.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenvpt_PT
dc.subjectspatial discrepancypt_PT
dc.subjectsatellitept_PT
dc.subjectFARSITEpt_PT
dc.subjectMODISpt_PT
dc.subjectfire behaviorpt_PT
dc.subjecthotspotspt_PT
dc.titleDeciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulationspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.titleScience of the Total Environmentpt_PT
person.familyNameCardoso Pereira
person.givenNameJosé Miguel
person.identifier163825
person.identifier.ciencia-idC415-CE82-884E
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2583-3669
person.identifier.ridI-1283-2014
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35570811600
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication65de789c-d3b7-44fd-aa82-2241d6c8435a
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery65de789c-d3b7-44fd-aa82-2241d6c8435a

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