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Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information

2025-01Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorPfleiderer, Peter
dc.contributor.authorFrölicher, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.authorKropf, Chahan M.
dc.contributor.authorLamboll, Robin D.
dc.contributor.authorLejeune, Quentin
dc.contributor.authorLourenço, Tiago Capela
dc.contributor.authorMaussion, Fabien
dc.contributor.authorMcCaughey, Jamie W.
dc.contributor.authorQuilcaille, Yann
dc.contributor.authorRogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.authorSanderson, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorSchuster, Lilian
dc.contributor.authorSillmann, Jana
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Chris
dc.contributor.authorTheokritoff, Emily
dc.contributor.authorSchleussner, Carl-Friedrich
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-31T09:40:33Z
dc.date.available2025-07-01T00:31:08Z
dc.date.issued2025-01
dc.description.abstractEscalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology as an end-user focused approach linking specific climate risk thresholds, including at the local level, to emissions pathways. We outline the socioeconomic and value judgement dimensions that can inform the identification of such risk thresholds. The applicability of the approach is highlighted by three examples that estimate the required CO2 emissions constraints to avoid critical levels of health-related heat risks in Berlin, fire weather in Portugal and glacier mass loss in High Mountain Asia. We argue that linking risk threshold exceedance directly to global emissions benchmarks can aid the understanding of the benefits of stringent emissions reductions for societies and local decision-makers.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationPfleiderer, P., Frölicher, T.L., Kropf, C.M. et al. Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information. Nat. Geosci. 18, 10–19 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01597-wpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41561-024-01597-wpt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/97971
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherNature Researchpt_PT
dc.relationEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmes under grant agreement no. 101003687 (PROVIDE)pt_PT
dc.relationEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research project no. 101081369 (SPARCCLE)pt_PT
dc.relationDOC Fellowship of the Austrian Academy of Sciences at the Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck (no. 25928)pt_PT
dc.relationGerman Research Foundation (DFG) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy—EXC 2037:’CLICCS— Climate, Climatic Change, and Society’—project number: 390683824pt_PT
dc.relationHEurope TipESM projectpt_PT
dc.titleReversal of the impact chain for actionable climate informationpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage19pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue1pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage10pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleNature Geosciencept_PT
oaire.citation.volume18pt_PT
person.familyNameCapela Lourenço
person.givenNameTiago Manuel
person.identifierB-4947-2008
person.identifier.ciencia-idF910-0F37-76B0
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8796-5993
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57016565700
rcaap.embargofctO tipo de licença envolvido com a editora Nature para esta revista, não envolvendo pagamento (APC), apenas permite acesso em repositório público do formato 'aceite' (i.e não editado e paginado pela editora) após período de embargo de 6 meses após a data da sua publicação final.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication264dcfda-d5e2-46ce-b53a-e1b75a0e4cc2
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery264dcfda-d5e2-46ce-b53a-e1b75a0e4cc2

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