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Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout

2021Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorViana, João
dc.contributor.authorvan Dorp, Christiaan H.
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Ana
dc.contributor.authorGomes, MC
dc.contributor.authorvan Boven, Michiel
dc.contributor.authorKretzschmar, Mirjam E.
dc.contributor.authorVeldhoen, Marc
dc.contributor.authorRozhnova, Ganna
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-21T16:28:51Z
dc.date.available2021-06-21T16:28:51Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description© The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.pt_PT
dc.description.abstractThere is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipG.R., J.V., A.N., M.C.G. were supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873, awarded to G.R. M.V. was supported by the European Union H2020 ERA project (No. 667824 - EXCELLtoINNOV). The contribution of C.H.v.D. was under the auspices of the US Department of Energy (contract number 89233218CNA000001) and supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant number R01-OD011095). MK acknowledges support from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Grant no. 10430022010001.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationNat Commun. 2021 Jun 16;12(1):3674.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-021-23938-8pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/48681
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringer Naturept_PT
dc.relation131_596787873pt_PT
dc.relationLeverage research EXCELLence and INNOVation potential of Instituto de Medicina Molecular (IMM) through translational biomedical research in immunity and infection.
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.nature.com/ncomms/pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.titleControlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rolloutpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumber667824
oaire.awardTitleLeverage research EXCELLence and INNOVation potential of Instituto de Medicina Molecular (IMM) through translational biomedical research in immunity and infection.
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/667824/EU
oaire.citation.issue1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleNature Communicationspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume12pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNameViana
person.familyNameNunes
person.familyNameGomes
person.familyNameVeldhoen
person.familyNameRozhnova
person.givenNameJoão
person.givenNameAna
person.givenNameManuel
person.givenNameMarc
person.givenNameGanna
person.identifierhttps://scholar.google.pt/citations?hl=en&user=7vG1jLIAAAAJ
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person.identifier.ciencia-id801D-A087-497B
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5760-1745
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2760-3277
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2679-0974
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1478-9562
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6725-7359
person.identifier.ridN-4022-2013
person.identifier.ridF-9633-2011
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35595751500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id36913958800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id8323789000
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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