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Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data

2019-11Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorCarvalho-Santos, Claudia
dc.contributor.authorMarcos, Bruno
dc.contributor.authorNunes, João Pedro
dc.contributor.authorRegos, Adrián
dc.contributor.authorPalazzi, Elisa
dc.contributor.authorTerzago, Silvia
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro, António
dc.contributor.authorHonrado, João
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-31T15:55:14Z
dc.date.available2024-01-31T15:55:14Z
dc.date.issued2019-11
dc.description.abstractFires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the effects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020–2049) compared to a historical period (1970–1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering differences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationCarvalho-Santos, C., Marcos, B., Nunes, J. P., Regos, A., Palazzi, E., Terzago, S., Monteiro, A., & Honrado, J. P. (2019). Hydrological Impacts of large fires and future climate: Modeling approach supported by satellite data. Remote Sensing, 11(23), 2832. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11232832pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/rs11232832pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/62346
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relationH2020 project ‘ECOPOTENTIAL: Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits Through Earth Observations’ (http://www.ecopotential-project.eupt_PT
dc.relationEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641762pt_PT
dc.relationFCT FirESmart PCIF/MOG/0083/2017pt_PT
dc.relationFCT SFRH/BD/99469/2014pt_PT
dc.relationFCT research grant “IF/00586/2015” through Programa Operacional Capital Humano (POCH) co-financed by the Fundo Social Europeu and national funds from the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superiorpt_PT
dc.relationXunta de Galicia, Spain (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0)pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.titleHydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Datapt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue23pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage2832pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleRemote Sensingpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume11pt_PT
person.familyNameCarvalho Nunes
person.givenNameJoão Pedro
person.identifierA-5497-2011
person.identifier.ciencia-id2911-5CBD-5FA9
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0164-249X
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7102878032
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationff741d71-8daf-4dbe-aec4-f4b9697072c5
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryff741d71-8daf-4dbe-aec4-f4b9697072c5

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