A carregar...
Publicação
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.57 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
What are the drivers of output fluctuations in Germany during
the COVID-19 pandemic? We develop a macro-epidemiological model
based on the evidence that efficiency and labor wedges are the key
distortions in the neoclassical growth model that account for the GDP
dynamics during the period. We find that the consumption and laborsupply
effects of containment policies and the endogenous responses of
households to pandemic-associated health risks can account for almost
all weekly dynamics of output in Germany between the first quarter
of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. The containment policies are
found to be responsible for especially large output losses during the
pandemic, but the endogenous household responses appear to play an
important complementary role. We simulate a counterfactual, laissezfaire
type of response to the pandemic and find that not only would
it not have avoided a sizeable recession either, but it would also lead
to substantially higher losses in human life and stress on the German
health service.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Covid-19 Germany SIR-Macro Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Business Cycle Accounting
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Krause, Willi, Luís Costa e João Ricardo Costa Filho (2023). "The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis". REM Working paper series, nº 0290/2023
Editora
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics