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Uncertainties in Plant Species Niche Modeling under Climate Change Scenarios

2024-08Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorPassos, Isabel
dc.contributor.authorFigueiredo, Albano
dc.contributor.authorAlmeida, Alice Maria
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Maria Margarida
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-13T08:47:52Z
dc.date.available2025-08-13T08:47:52Z
dc.date.issued2024-08
dc.description.abstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) have been used to forecast the impact of climate change on species’ potential distribution, with results that might support decisions for conservation and biodiversity management. Despite their vulnerability to parameterization and data quality input, SDM use has been increasing in the last decades. In fact, inappropriate inputs and the lack of awareness about the effects of methodological decisions on results can lead to potential unreliability in results, a problem that might gain relevance when SDMs are used to predict climate change impacts on species-suitable areas. Aiming to assess how far such a topic is considered, an analysis of the calibration data and methodological decisions was conducted for recent publications (2018 to 2022) that include SDMs in this context, aiming to identify putative deviations from the consensual best practices. Results show that the parameters presented more consistently are the algorithm in use (MaxEnt was used in 98% of the studies), the accuracy measures, and the time windows. But many papers fail to specify other parameters, limiting the reproducibility of the studies. Some papers fail to provide information about calibration procedures, others consider only a fraction of the species’ range, and others provide no justification for including specific variables in the model. These options can decrease reliability in predictions under future scenarios, since data provided to the model are inaccurate from the start or there is insufficient information for output discussionpt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationPassos, I.; Figueiredo, A.; Almeida, A.M.; Ribeiro, M.M. Uncertainties in Plant Species Niche Modeling under Climate Change Scenarios. Ecologies 2024, 5, 402–419. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies5030025pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/ecologies5030025pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/102826
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relationForest Research Centre
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.mdpi.com/journal/ecologiespt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectclimate changept_PT
dc.subjectplant speciespt_PT
dc.subjectrange shiftpt_PT
dc.subjectspecies distribution modelspt_PT
dc.titleUncertainties in Plant Species Niche Modeling under Climate Change Scenariospt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumberUI/BD/152853/2022
oaire.awardNumberUIDB/00239/2020
oaire.awardTitleForest Research Centre
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//UI%2FBD%2F152853%2F2022/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00239%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.endPage419pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage402pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleEcologiespt_PT
oaire.citation.volume5pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.identifier349097
person.identifier.ciencia-idAD12-4D32-7A48
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4684-1262
person.identifier.ridM-4235-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7201715611
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication611828c6-e1cd-4fe3-9f82-cf6f076860a9
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery611828c6-e1cd-4fe3-9f82-cf6f076860a9
relation.isProjectOfPublication22eeedf7-d2db-4689-8050-afe745803ad2
relation.isProjectOfPublication56bd0ae9-f8da-4344-b9a2-f633d4f68b89
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